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MSNBC The Last Word With Lawrence ODonnell June 4, 2024 06:55:00

Wave dilution when just about everyone else in the prediction game fell for it. joining us now, for a well deserved victory lap is simon rosenberg, veteran successful first presidential campaign, and he has served tours of duty at the democrat national committee and democratic national campaign committee. thank you very much for joining, us simon, i want to cover as much ground as they can to convince people to stop obsessing over polls. and, let me begin with one thing i have heard you explained brilliantly, that is what is a likely voter? what is a likely voter in polls, and how that is basically some form of a guess of who they likely voter is? yeah, it is a gas, and particularly it was hard in this election because in the last two elections the electorate grew so much. and we had all these new voters in the electorate, it was going to be very hard to know who was going to vote, and so i do ....

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MSNBC The Last Word With Lawrence ODonnell June 4, 2024 06:58:00

Conversation, you are supposed to know what was going to happen, which has something to do with what we were just seeing on video there with people pretending they know what is going to happen. yeah, listen, the big miss the cycle was on democratic intensity. the polls were not wrong, the analysis was wrong. the analysis of the polls and the data was wrong. and let me explain really quickly, why right, in june the election changed, a combination of uvalde, january six committee hearings, ending of roe, abortion, and all of a sudden what we were seeing right in these five how specials that took place were consistent democratic over performance, and republican struggling. you saw it again in kansas, you saw democrats over performing, republican struggling, it didn t look like a red wave. then you saw democrats raising much more money into their campaigns, then republicans and ....

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MSNBC The Last Word With Lawrence ODonnell June 4, 2024 06:10:00

Losing a reelection campaign on his watch if senator raphael warnock is elected in charge of, reelected in georgia on december 6th. the new york times points out that that would be the first time no senate incumbent has lost in either party since 1914. on the other side of the story is the chair of the republican senate campaign committee, senator rick scott, who has done the worst job of any chair of the republican senate campaign committee and the first midterm election of a democratic president. rick scott contributed personally and mightily that the disaster that republicans have faced when he said that social security should be repealed, and that social security would then be placed with a temporary five-year program that could be reauthorized by congress every five years if congress passed a bill to do a, and if that bill wasn t signed by the president of the united states. in other words, rick scott proposed turning social security into retirement insecurity in the form of a pro ....

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MSNBC The Last Word With Lawrence ODonnell June 4, 2024 06:59:00

The other side and then the voter numbers huawei up for us. we saw a big surge of democrats registering particularly, women young women, so we were checking all of these intensity boxes there republicans were checking none of them. so the question, was would that same dynamic show up in election day. then the early vote came, and we saw that same dynamic play out over the two weeks, the early vote, and so what we posted was what we are looking at here and as you put out in the tweet earlier, the pulling in the last few weeks also if you step out the partisan poll, s were pretty good for democrats including your final nbc poll which maybe the single best pull of the whole cycle by the way, the nbc poll that came out the sunday before the election. what we were looking at was high democratic intensity for months and months, democratic over performance, plus competitive election, and pulls that were on balance pretty good for us at the end so, we were optimistic on election day, the elec ....

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MSNBC The Last Word With Lawrence ODonnell June 4, 2024 06:26:00

Reflecting there is just uncertainty about where the house is gonna end up right now. we have an under dog in the house before the election, or an underdog now as the votes are being counted, but there still a path to 2:18 for the democrats. so we re gonna keep our fingers and toes crossed here to see if that s how the count comes out. the president made it clear throughout this campaign that we re gonna do everything in his power to protect women s right to choose. we ll use our executive time powers to protect the woman s right to choose. it s already taken significant actions in that regard in terms of the right to travel, in terms of making sure the abortion pill, which is the way most women access the reproductive rights, is available in all 50 states. making sure the hospital performs urgency procedures. but in terms of legislative action, that will obviously determine where the vote count ends up, and we still don t ....

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