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Overconfidence is a prevalent problem and it is particularly consequential in its relation with scientific knowledge: being unaware of one’s own ignorance can affect behaviours and threaten public policies and health. However, it is not clear how confidence varies with knowledge. Here, we examine four large surveys, spanning 30 years in Europe and the United States and propose a new confidence metric. This metric does not rely on self-reporting or peer comparison, operationalizing (over)confidence as the tendency to give incorrect answers rather than ‘don’t know’ ...

Ruby was the first one to use the word “twin.” It was a Sunday, and we were all home. I heard the telltale cries from Jace’s room, signaling that he’d woken from his afternoon nap. “Coming, buddy,” I called as I made my way upstairs to extract him from his crib. When I reached the doorway of the baby’s room, I became aware of a second cry, not so much an echo as a harmony. But

SOME say failure is a lesson for success. It gives us deep insight and helps us to be resilient.

News of the unending stream of brutality, violence and carnage in America; the daily killings, the mindless shooting of children and adults, the pushing of folks into the path of oncoming trains and other traffic, police brutality and the vicious partisan struggle for political power, brings to the mind of the outsider the subtitle of Hans Habe’s book about his travel across the American continent in 1963; ‘Anatomy of Hatred, The Wounded Land, Hans Habe, (George C Harrap & Co. Ltd., 1964) “The Wounded Land” speaks of this sensitive European-American writer’s t...

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero