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Emerging markets’ vulnerability to a reassessment of risk Prepared by by Irina Balteanu and Livia Chiṭu Financial conditions in emerging market economies (EMEs) have weathered the COVID-19 crisis well so far, despite an intense but short-lived stress episode at the onset of the pandemic. Financial conditions in EMEs have rebounded strongly since March 2020; they currently stand at levels similar to before the pandemic thanks to lower bond spreads and higher equity prices. Capital flows have also recovered, with market segments typically judged to be riskier by foreign investors, such as ...

Date Understanding post-referendum weakness in UK import demand and UK balance of payments risks for the euro area 0 / 0 x Prepared by Valerie Jarvis and Tobias Schuler 1 Introduction The UK referendum on EU membership in 2016 has set the course for the most significant change to the relationship between the United Kingdom and its closest trading partners for decades. The primary interest from the ECB’s perspective is to understand the likely impact on trade of the departure of the United Kingdom from the European Union, as the United Kingdom ha...

IMF Executive Board Concludes 2021 Article IV Consultation with Chile sitecoreitem IMF Executive Board Concludes 2021 Article IV Consultation with Chile April 23, 2021 Washington, DC: On April 19, 2021, the Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) concluded the Article IV consultation [1] with Chile. The pandemic hit Chile as it was recovering from the economic consequences of the social unrest in October 2019. Economic activity is projected to have declined by 5.8 percent in 2020, about 7 percentage points below staff's pre-pandemic projection. Inflation has hovered around t...

Making waves – Fed spillovers are stronger and more encompassing than the ECB’s This article argues that European Central Bank (ECB) and Federal Reserve System (Fed) monetary policy spill over to other countries asymmetrically. At the bilateral level, the Fed’s impact on the euro area is material to firms’ financial conditions and economic activity. Conversely, the impact of the ECB’s actions on the US economy is minimal. On a global scale, both central banks’ monetary policies matter for other countries, but the Fed’s monetary policy has a more sizeable impact, particularly on ...

April 11, 2021 | Tiny Housing Bubbles John Mauldin John Mauldin is a renowned financial expert, a New York Times best-selling author, and a pioneering online commentator. Each week, over 1 million readers turn to Mauldin for his penetrating view on Wall Street, global markets, and economic history. Recently I searched the Thoughts from the Frontline archives to see how often I used the word “bubble.” It was more than I thought, and I wasn’t quoting Don Ho. The bubbles I talked about were anything but tiny. Most of them subsequently popped, too. Recently I searched the Thoughts from ...