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donald trump has universal name recognition. he is to republican primary voters a kind of incumbent. if he doesn't win by enormous margins, that does suggest there's a real vulnerability and the path for an alternative. that's what nikki haley is banking on. do respectably in those areas where she invested time and effort and see where she goes. >> trump, he predicted he would win with what he called, quote, a historic landslide. what happens if he doesn't? >> anything he gets is going to be historic because the next closest one is bob dole in 1988 who won by 13 percentage points. it's going to be historic. he's going to break records no matter what. however, if he doesn't win with the kind of, i think, crushing victory he's been talking about and talking very loudly about,

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Americas Choice 2024 Iowa Caucuses

and counting on the fact that he is the first former president to run on a primary, to allow him to break the rules of the iowa caucus. the rules of the iowa caucus used to be we need you to be here if you expect us to be there for you. >> he has spent less time in iowa than ron desantis, nikki haley or vivek ramaswamy, when you look at events, i know i could hear a trump spokesperson calling and saying he has bigger events and he does not have to go as to as many of them. if he doesn't win, does it mean that the retail campaigning is over? this has become nationalized like you said? >> our country goes through these cycles and our political culture changes. right now we are at a moment where everything seems nationalized, that would mean it's true but it does not mean it will last forever. yes, it would mean that iowa

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The Chris Wallace Show

digits? >> yeah. i don't think that's going to be enough, honestly, because i think that if you see some kind of surprise, if you see that there's a surprise, for example, in second place, i think that that could give someone a tailwind. >> lulu, as i said in the package, the record for the biggest win ever in a contested republican caucus in iowa was 12 points. is reihan right? does he have to get over 50% which would mean winning by 20 or 30 points? >> i think he does because he's not coming in only as someone who wants to be the nominee. he is coming in as an incumbent. i mean, this is someone who was the president of the united states. so therefore, there's a lot of expectations on how well he's going to do. that said, the fact of the matter is that even if it isn't over 50% comfortably, as you said, reihan, i think he still is the man to beat. so you know, i think we're just fudging words a little bit. ultimately is there a lot of

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The Chris Wallace Show

conditions, iowans will gather at locations across the state from church basements to school cafeterias to discuss the republican candidates and vote. and the results could dramatically reshape or solidify the landscape of the presidential race. in the final hours, three big questions for the three leading candidates -- >> we're going to take our country back. >> first, donald trump. >> look, we got to get out and vote. >> the record margin in a contested gop caucus is 12 points, but with a lead of more than 30 points in the latest iowa polls, how big does trump's win have to be? >> we're delivering on the promise to do all 99. >> then there's ron desantis. >> we're in it for the long haul with this. >> he's put all his chips on iowa. barnstorming the state with more than 100 events across all 99 counties. but if he doesn't win or come close, will he drop out? >> if you will caucus for me, i will forever be grateful. >> then there is nikki haley --

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The Chris Wallace Show

>> i wish donald trump was up here on this stage. he's the one that i'm running against. >> what does she need to do in iowa to help boost the momentum she already has in new hampshire? here with me, podcaster cara swisher, ryhan salaam, president of the manhattan institute, and national review contributing editor. "new york times" journalist and podcast host lulu garcia navarro, and author and conservative pollster kristin soltis anderson. welcome back, everyone. good to be with you. so ryhan, what will constitute a win for donald trump? how big does he have to score the other candidates, especially haley and desantis, for people to say he won iowa? >> this sound like a high bar, but i think it has to be comfortably above 50% because the expectations are incredibly, incredibly high for him. if it's anything short of that, then people will smell blood in the water. >> even if he wins by double

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The Chris Wallace Show

christie. but on other hand, is there some middle ground between that she's saying now and flat out saying he's unqualified? >> i've long thought that she needed to be a little bit tougher on her -- on him. if you watched the cnn debate from this past week, about halfway through she does get tougher. she says january 6th was horrible, that some of his legal defenses are ridiculous. i mean, she was tougher on him. you just had to get to minute 60 of the debate to get there. i wish she'd front load that a little more. but ultimately she also can't be too, too tough on him because so many republicans do still hold some affection even if it is for old trump. >> i'll also say that when you look at 2016, one of the big themes we talked about was the existence of the shy trump voter. folks who were a little bit apprehensive about letting people know about their support. i think this might be the cycle for the shy anti-trump voter. and if you saw nikki haley win in new hampshire, that suddenly makes a lot of folks who start to rethink things, maybe this isn't inevitable. then you could see a cascade of

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The Chris Wallace Show

are checked out. many sort of assume, oh, there is maybe already a done deal. oh, there's people fighting for second place, but you know, i -- i think a win in new hampshire for nikki haley is necessary and really would potentially change the game. her problem is then she goes to south carolina where all bets are off. >> that's the odd thing. that's her state. she's the governor there. you would think that -- but at this point she's down 20, 30 points to trump in her own state. >> right. which is why she needs huge momentum. from my perspective -- i know the folks assembled thinks trump needs -- i think a commanding 50%-plus lead or some muddled result down in second place. where nikki haley doesn't get a ton of momentum out of it. then she falters in new hampshire and so on and so forth. there's two ways for trump to win in iowa. either big numbers or a muddled mess in second place. >> what do you think about what haley needs to do vis-a-vis trump? you know, chris christie saying if she doesn't say he's unfit -- obviously it didn't work for

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The Chris Wallace Show

report a crime and get police to raid the official's home or business. on thursday, police responded to a bomb threat at the home of the new york judge in donald trump's fraud trial. and check this out -- more than a dozen state legislatures across the country have received bomb threats already this year, norsing several to -- forcing several to shut down. trump issued a warning this week if courts rule against his claim of presidential immunity. >> i think they feel this is the way they're going to try and win, and it's not the way it goes. that will be bedlam in the country. a very bad thing. it's a very bad precedent. as we said, the opening of a pandora's box. >> kara, is swatting the terrible new normal for public officials in this country? >> it's been going on for a long time actually. it's often organize odds line. people find it entertaining -- on line. people find it entertaining to target people. it works because police

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The Chris Wallace Show

trump-new trump thing very well. old trump, we liked him. this new guy, he's chaos, old, crazy. that's the best way to do it. chris christie, who does it well, is a miss take. i don't think she smoked. when he said that off hot mic, whatever, he probably wanted it heard, i don't think she smoked at all actually. >> i mean, does she -- are the expectations for her now that she has to beat trump in new hampshire? >> absolutely. and i think she might. in fact, i think she will. >> if she were to finish seven points behind like the poll, is that good enough to -- >> no. i think she has to beat him. if she beats him in new hampshire -- i interviewed maggie haber man and john carl this week on my podcast. they were like, the thing that trump is most scared of is a tighter, tighter race because then everyone starts to -- he has to have the dominance going. >> donald trump's whole brand is i'm a winner. if he doesn't win in new hampshire, suddenly people start going, oh, this is actually an interesting race. i think right now a lot of voters, even republican voters,

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The Chris Wallace Show

will forever be grateful. >> and then there is nikki haley -- >> i wish donald trump was up here on this stage. he's the one that i'm running against. >> what does she need to do in iowa to help boost the momentum she already has in new hampshire? >> here with me, podcaster, kara swisher, rahim salon and national review contributing editor. "new york times" journalist and podcast host, lulu garcia navarro and author and conservative pollster, kristen anderson. welcome back, everyone. good to be with you. so rihan, what will constitute a win for donald trump on monday night? how big does he have to score over the other candidates, especially haley and desantis, for people to say he won iowa? >> this sounds like a high bar, but i think it has to be comfortably above 50%. the expectations are incredibly high for him.

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