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"IMPOSSIBLE TRINITY IN A SMALL OPEN ECONOMY: A STATE–SPACE MODEL SIMULA" by Guna Raj Bhatta, Rabindra Nepal et al.

Should monetary policy independence be maintained when the exchange rate is fixed under closed capital account conditions in a small open economy? In this study, we simulate the impossible trinity condition during 1989 to 2019 on the Nepalese economy that restricts capital flows and fixes the exchange rate with India. We modify the traditional Taylor rule based on the monetary policy reaction function to characterize Nepal's economic conditions more closely. The state–space model simulation shows that the policy trilemma does not hold in Nepal, such that the model can predict interest rate when the weight for domestic conditions is assigned at a substantially lower level. Therefore, the existing policy mix may need to be revisited to maintain monetary policy independence. Nepal might consider devaluing its currency to neutralize the adverse effects of the negative risk premium and ameliorate the real exchange rate appreciation in the short run and explore alternative arrangement ....

Impossible Trinity , Monetary Policy Independence , Policy Simulation , State Space Model ,

"Uncovered interest rate parity and monetary policy rule in a small ope" by Guna Raj Bhatta

Exchange rate and monetary policy are emerging topics under consideration in Nepal’s macroeconomic policy discussions. Since the early 1950s, Nepal has fixed the exchange rate with India. Nepal is highly dependent on India for trade and investment and shares an open border. Both the exchange rate regime and level of peg have not been adjusted since 1993, despite several changes in the macroeconomic environment. Existing empirical evidence has demonstrated that Nepal is importing price stability by fixing the exchange rate, real exchange rate has appreciated, external trade competitiveness is weak, and effectiveness of the monetary policy transmission is poor. Against this backdrop, the thesis explores monetary policy reaction function to understand Nepal's monetary policy and exchange rate interactions; three broad, interrelated objectives are explained in three chapters. The first study tests the uncovered interest rate parity condition's validity between Nepalese rupees a ....

Nepal Rastra Bank , Interest Parity , Impossible Trinity , Monetary Policy , Taylor Rule ,

Strike Three For The Fed

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero ....

United States , John Gochnaur , Wilma Soss , Federal Reserve System , Gold Standard , Great Depression , Great War , Great Crash , Policy Monster , Hyde Park , Great Inflation , Impossible Trinity , Bretton Woods , Global Financial Crisis , Great Recession ,

"Many Unholy Trinities" - ECB Failure Is (Almost) Guaranteed

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero ....

Yangtze Delta , China General , Yasmin Fahini , Katherine Tai , John Fleming , Robert Mundell , German Federation Of Trade Unions , Elwin De Groot , Slovenia Governor Vasle , Treasury Secretary Yellen , Representative Katherine Tai , President Biden , German Federation , Trade Unions , Chancellor Scholz , Impossible Trinity , Anti Fragmentation Tool ,

The Expansive Welfare State, The 'Pate De Foie Gras' Fallacy, And The Impossible Trinity 2.0

The Expansive Welfare State, The 'Pate De Foie Gras' Fallacy, And The Impossible Trinity 2.0
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United States , United Kingdom , Joe Biden , Build Back Better , Soviet Union , Impossible Trinity , President Biden , Soviet Economy , Free Universal Preschool , Build Back Better Bill , Welfare System , Trinity 2 0 ,