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If you look at president obama, there were times where folks approved of president obama at a clip 10 points higher. the inverse. going into election day, it will be critical as to why as an independent republican member of congress you vote for that candidate because democrats are energized. if you look at the ballot and the intensity gap, to be a democrat, you have to be against the president. that's all your voters are looking for. >> it came out that 36% overall approval, but 49% for his handling of the economy. just that disparity. there is a lot of talk and know you are leaving the house...

Be facing a brutal fall and a tough election. are you still hearing them say hey if this breaks a certain way and that breaks a certain way we may just be able to hold on and maintain the majority? >> joe, i think they 100% understand it. i had lunch a couple of weeks ago with a top republican consultant who knows a lot of the house highway patrol and he said it's at a point where a lot of these guys are looking for jobs in lobbying firms that aren't hiring because lobbying firms expect there to be a shift. i have one spoiler alert that 60% number on dishonest, i was looking at "usa today," tw...

>> well, they are and they aren't. the key thing is turnouts, we are not seeing a great deal of shifting in terms of party id. we are seeing kind of the traditional, intensity gap being the party of the white house, if you look at 2010 obama had a 10-point gap in 2014, 11-point gap, 2006 we had an 8-point gap, right now the gap is running 7 points nationwide and the democrats are more intense and what you will see in the races including the race coming up in ohio next week is that the intensity is real issue, is not that voters are deciding one direction or the other, it's one side or the othe...

Paul: these numbers don't look good if you're a republican in the midwest, what do you think is going on there? >> well, they are and they aren't. the key thing is turnouts, we are not seeing a great deal of shifting in terms of party id. we are seeing kind of the traditional, intensity gap being the party of the white house, if you look at 2010 obama had a 10-point gap in 2014, 11-point gap, 2006 we had an 8-point gap, right now the gap is running 7 points nationwide and the democrats are more intense and what you will see in the races including the race coming up in ohio next week is that th...

You should have had higher republican turnout statewide because you had a competitive governor's primary. on the flip side, there were competitive house races in the southeast in not where you grew up or me, but delaware and montgomery county where you have eight, ten democrats running. that probably juiced up democratic turnout. >> you don't seem concerned? you're not worried about it? >> no. i think if you look at any polling, that the intensity gap between democrats and republicans, there's more intensity on the democratic side of the ballot box to be sure. we still have five months before ...