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Great news: The US economy is officially out of recession. We know this because the National Bureau of Economic Research’s official recession-calling committee said so this week. The economy has been in an expansion phase since last April, making this the shortest recession on record at only two months. The NBER committee always makes these calls in hindsight—both the beginning and end of recessions. Literally everyone could see the economy coming to a halt in March and April. The signs weren’t subtle. Yet it wasn’t until June 8, 2020, that they said the economy had peaked in Februa...

I have mixed feelings about China. On the plus side, I think the country’s massive economic transformation may be one of the most impressive events in human history. Bringing hundreds of millions from primitive rural lives into relatively prosperous cities within a few years was awe-inspiring. I greatly admire the millions of Chinese entrepreneurs worldwide who create jobs and technology. They’ve helped the entire world in countless ways. And yet, I can’t forget that China’s leaders are devoted, ideologically centralist communists. Americans sometimes apply that term casually to our p...

 (h/t Neil Howe), a very dark time indeed This is July 4 weekend, when in the US we celebrate American independence. Rather than my usual economic/investment letter, this week I want to take a more philosophical tack, looking at some of the challenges we face as a country and culture, beginning with the freedom of the press but then turning to technology and even wealth disparity. We will have to consider what freedom of speech meant in the 1800s, what it meant at the turn of this last century, and what it means today in a world of social media.

I remain manifestly bearish on both stocks (value, growth and meme), bonds, Bitcoin and NFTs....BYND

The annual whirlwind is over. SIC was once again a mental overload. This year our virtual schedule spread it over almost two weeks, which was actually nice. The in-between days let the ideas settle a bit before the firehose opened again. Fifty powerful, thoughtful speakers are a lot to absorb. As promised, I’ll continue sharing some SIC highlights with you in my next few letters. This week and next we will look at the inflation/deflation debate. This popped up repeatedly (sometimes by design, sometimes randomly) and often provoked vigorous disagreement. Today we’ll consider the arguments ...