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Random Thoughts From The Frontline 20January 2021 Please share this article - Go to very top of page, right hand side, for social media buttons. Let’s jump in. What Is Fair Value? Many analysts contend that current stock valuations resemble the dot-com era. You can see it visually at Current Market Valuation. Here are just a few of the many charts on the website. Let’s start with the classic “Buffett Indicator." It certainly seems to be in nosebleed territory. Notice that the valuations in 1966, the beginning of a long-term bear market, were also high. Source: Source: This next one is u...

The Gripping Hand Holds Inflation :: The Market Oracle ::

That day will come. For now, the economy depends on the coronavirus. Both have cloudy forecasts. The best case: Vaccines, combined with previous infections, immunize enough of the population to let the previously normal economy return. We’ll travel, gather, and meet face to face without fear, and without pesky precautions like masks. That could happen, maybe even by mid-year,  if everything goes perfectly. More likely it would be late 2021 or early 2022. Unfortunately, the vaccine campaign is not off to a good start. In the US, according to the CDC vaccine tracker, some 3.2 million peopl...

You Are What You Live Through As An Investor  Share   Share Trending It is appropriate and perhaps entirely ironic that the subject of this week’s Dividend Cafe comes at a time where we have recently seen some of the most bizarre, insane, and silly market activity, ever, and that this bizarre, insane, and silly activity is accompanied by totally incoherent commentary from various pundits, politicians, and “pros.” Whoever said investing was all math and science is an idiot. But the drama of last week’s market, and even the circumstances around the big headline story of the week (whi...

Here are four things to be hopeful about today: First, we now have  weapons against the coronavirus. The US has two approved vaccines. England, China and Russia have developed their own. Additional vaccines are under development and will likely be available later this year. These will be game-changers if we manage to deploy them widely and quickly. Which, I admit, is a big “if.” The initial rollout has been slow almost everywhere but Israel and, surprisingly, West Virginia. West Virginia was the one state that did  not use the federal nursing home rollout plan. They ran their ow...