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A U.S. presidential race that is about to heat up could add a fresh wrinkle to markets in 2024, as investors gauge the potential for post-election changes in fiscal spending, taxation and other policy areas. For months, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy trajectory and the U.S. economy have consumed investors, with expectations for 2024 rate cuts by the central bank fueling an explosive stocks rally in late 2023 and putting the S&P 500 within striking distance of a fresh record high. This year's election is pointing toward a rematch between President Joe Biden, a Democrat, ...

A U.S. presidential race that is about to heat up could add a fresh wrinkle to markets in 2024, as investors gauge the potential for post-election changes in fiscal spending, taxation and other policy...

Investors are gauging the potential for changes in fiscal spending, taxation and other policy areas

Why a rocky stretch could be approaching

Investors’ hopes are running high to start 2024, which could set up U.S. stocks for a rocky stretch if some expectations are not met. For example, the narrative of resilient growth and gradually cooling inflation that helped boost the S&P 500 to a 24% gain last year has become the consensus view among investors. The latest BofA Global Research survey, released last month, showed 66% of fund managers believed the economy will achieve a soft landing in 2024.