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So you think that despite the fact that your models are less confident of a hillary victo victory -- >> i don't think the main difference between the models is how far clinton is ahead. the difference is how far the results could differ from our current estimate of the race. >> you still think, in other words, on the coin toss, trump might win. >> it could happen. >> really. >> guys, thank you. real pleasure. >> thank you. next on "gps," america has never seen an election like it, but surely, there are some precedents for some aspects of it. i have four very smart historians to discuss it al...

International affairs, i'm also aware of how fragile democracy is. look at poland. the poster child for democracy in europe over the last 25 years, where a new party in power has subordinated the judiciary courts and media to its authority. look at russia, where the democratic tradition so promising in the 1990s has almost vanished. look at turkey, where a once reformist leader has decided to accumulate power and erode traditions of freedom and democracy that were rare in the middle east. it doesn't feel like it could happen in america, the oldest constitutional democracy in the world, with ma...

I believe hillary clinton will win. i don't think it will be by a large margin, but she will win. i believe the senate can go democratic, and if it does, you have a very interesting dynamic in the senate. you have a progressive caucus for the first time. senator warren, senator sanders, senator sherrod brown, jeff m k merkl merkley. i think you also have the ability to hold hearings on things that matter to the american people. bernie sanders asked the department of justice to hold hearings on drug companies collusion. i think you have interesting new progressives in the house who will lead in...

At this point, the most likely outcome is probably a 50/50 senate with whomever the vice president is breaking the tie. >> we keep talking about tuesday as though it's election day. but in fact, 40 million people roughly have already voted. what do we know from the early voting? what conclusions can you draw? >> i think that we know this is a presidentialelectorate. this will not be a low-turnout election. many parts of the country, the turnout will surpass that of 2012. a presidential electorate will draw millions of young and non-white voters. it may not be the same as the electorate that vo...

In this election in ways we have not seen in a long time. the stunning absence of any policy discussions, maybe on immigration and trade a little, the trivialization, the obliteration of the line between news and entertainment, the abetting of donald trump. now there has been fine reporting, but until we have a media which illuminates and it's not left/right. it's about public interest and what is in people's communities, what's on people's minds. we're destined to have a kind of demagogry which afflicts our political system. >> j.d., i'm going to give you the last word because it does seem to...