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Larry Berman: S&P 500 earnings expectations rise into sell-in-May rally VIDEO SIGN OUT Optimism around market performance, corporate earnings and economic recovery could be setting the tables for a traditional May sell-off. Bottom-up estimate expectations for 2021 were about US$164, according to S&P Global at the start of the year. Bloomberg consensus had similar numbers. FactSet, had the number at US$167 to start the year. They are currently at US$176. The current numbers for 2022 are about US$200. I think a 20-times multiple is expensive, compared to the historic mean 16.5-times, wh...

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Larry Berman: What does market breadth tell us about when to 'buy the dip'? VIDEO SIGN OUT All my valuation models are still off-the-charts extreme, which means that longer-term, forward-based returns are likely well below average and correction risks are elevated. Economic conditions overall are supported by massive expectations for more stimulus and central bank support. This could, and maybe should, last into 2022, but you can already see that massive stimulus is getting bipartisan pushback. There is also a funding problem. The U.S. Federal Reserve is not buying enough and that can...

The Ultimate Guide to LinkedIn Groups Considering the social network has 722 million+ members, you almost certainly already have a profile.  The stats about its effectiveness and usage are mind-boggling: for instance, three people are hired every minute on LinkedIn, and the network reports a 55% increase in conversations between connections just in the last quarter.  If you're anything like me, you read these stats and get the feeling you should be getting more out of your LinkedIn experience. But navigating a world of over 700 million individuals can seem pretty daunting – and, like any...

Larry Berman: Credit markets not pricing economic risks correctly VIDEO SIGN OUT The continued saga over the central bank printing press is creating a degree of moral hazard never seen before. In the S&P 500, there are about 10 per cent of companies that do not earn enough to cover their interest payments and about 150 that are not investment grade. These are being kept alive by cheap money—and this was all happening before COVID. The numbers are worse today, though implied support from the central bank makes the risks involved with owning weak companies very distorted. High yiel...