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<p>An adaptation of the RAND-developed military will-to-fight model highlights potential opportunities to use cognitive maneuver to counter Russian-hired private military actors' operational effectiveness around the globe.</p>
The bulked-up U.S. presence in Europe will remain necessary for at least three to five years, for at least three reasons: to preserve Ukraine's sovereignty, to sustain U.S. commitments to NATO, and to encourage the development of partner nation capabilities that will eventually enable greater burden-sharing among allies.
Russian oligarch turned warlord Yevgeny Prigozhin is in exile in Belarus, but what will become of the tens of thousands of fighters who signed up to risk their lives for a paycheck or a ticket out of jail? It seems likely they will continue fighting, mostly because they have few better options.
Moscow's desire for additional fighters in Ukraine has created a breeding ground for Russian private military company (PMC) development. This explosion of what are essentially private armies is not only shaping the battlefield in Ukraine; it could have devastating impacts long after this conflict ends.
<p>RAND researchers drew on historical great power wars to develop four scenarios illustrating how hypothetical wars between the United States and either China or Russia could produce unanticipated consequences — even for the state that is victorious.</p>