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Euro area fiscal policy response to the war in Ukraine and its macroeconomic impact

The European Central Bank (ECB) is the central bank of the 19 European Union countries which have adopted the euro. Our main task is to maintain price stability in the euro area and so preserve the purchasing power of the single currency. ....

Philip Muggenthaler , Maximilian Freier , Cristina Checherita Westphal , Group On Public Finance , Trading System , Public Finance , Working Group , Multi Country Model ,

ECB staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area, March 2021


ECB staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area, March 2021
Overview
The recent intensification of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic has weakened the near-term outlook for euro area activity but not derailed the recovery. Despite extended and more stringent containment measures, activity in the fourth quarter of 2020 declined by significantly less than expected in the December 2020 Eurosystem staff projections due to learning effects, strong manufacturing growth and a rebound in foreign demand. Although the new lockdowns have been accompanied by additional fiscal support measures, another decline in activity is projected for the first quarter of 2021. The near-term outlook for activity depends on the evolution of the pandemic and, in particular, on how fast and how much rising vaccination rates will allow an unwinding of containment measures. Containment measures are now assumed to be more stringent in the first half of 2021 than in the December 2020 projections, b ....

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