Evaluation of clinical prediction models (part 2): how to undertake an external validation study
External validation studies are an important but often neglected part of prediction model research. In this article, the second in a series on model evaluation, Riley and colleagues explain what an external validation study entails and describe the key steps involved, from establishing a high quality dataset to evaluating a model’s predictive performance and clinical usefulness. A clinical prediction model is used to calculate predictions for an individual conditional on their characteristics. Such predictions might be of a continuous value (eg, blood pressure, fat mass) or the probability o...