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California's gubernatorial recall election and polls show governor newsom has a good chance of surviving. the latest polling average shows him with a double digit lead. though the polls have been known to get things wrong in the past. so, how much will a clear cut victory for the democrats in california need when republicans are already crying fraud? right now, former president donald trump and other republicans are laying the ground work to claim the recall election was rigged. this week, larry elder, the leading republican challenger to newsome told reporters he's prepared to file lawsuits. ...

This election next week, simultaneously voters are voting on a giant list of candidates to replace newsom. whoever gets the most votes on the list would become the governor immediately. this is the polling average right now, these are not all of the candidates, these are some of the candidates but the headline here is larry elder who is a conservative comment nator, he leads the way right now in this very crowded field here in the replacement race. if it ever came to it, if gavin newsom did get recalled next week larry elder looks to be the front-runner. >> steve kornacki, thank you so much. >...

Take a look at the current real clear politics polling average of the democratic field. so you'll notice it shows joe biden at the top with 28%. bernie sanders with 19%. elizabeth warren and pete buttigieg rounding out the top four. but if we go back a year, look at that. joe biden at the top, 27%. sanders, 18. beto o'rourke and kamala harris at that point rounding out the top. but look, those top two are not only still the same people, their numbers are virtually unchanged. one year that saw a string of debates, a presidential impeachment, presidential attacks, you name it, but still biden an...

>> how do you run? >> okay. see? >> okay, okay. twinkle toes, i see you. >> i've seen that and laughed every single time. >> very helpful for sir charles to lay that out. >> that was helpful. andy, thank you very much. only 38 days until the iowa caucuses. who is going to win? only one man knows ands that senior writer and analyst, what's the answer? >> i know how to run better than barkley but not sure who's going to win. let's take a look. this is a polling average of the polls conducted in november and december. what we see here folks, it is eye true mess. buttigieg at 21%, biden in 19, s...

Part of our coverage tonight. steve kornacki, take us to iowa. >> look at this contrast. this is the national polling average right now for the democratic race. biden in front. when you look at iowa, completely different story. buttigieg actually leads right now, slightly in the average of polls. sanders is right on his heels, only two points behind. biden very close, but technically that is third place for biden. elizabeth warren behind him by a few points. four candidates within six points of each other in iowa. there are two things we've seen traditionally in iowa. we've seen a number of ra...