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Poll. >> my point is we're seeing something nationally because it's a more diverse polling base to pull from. and it tells us about the support each of these candidates have. >> that is true. >> and i think it's important. obviously the african-american voters are a key part for any democrat to win the nomination. >> one thing you have to understand about new hampshire is they allow crossover voters. there is essentially no primary. so there will be a lot more, quote unquote, moderates who are going to leave the republican party. they're not going to vote for trump anyway. and that's going to ...

Heather: there are three projection models that showed donald trump will win in 2024 couple reasons. incumbent president first and foremost, during good economies, rarely ever lose. will that continue to be the case? >> these are economic rather than polling base, they have a good track record, nailed the obama presidency is, and the exact numbers not quite right. it is extremely difficult to be a person who is doing well with the economy and is an incumbent, just a fact and when you combine that with the other thing we spoke of, this extraordinarily crowded democratic primary with a lot of de...