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The first caucus state. vaughn hillyard has been there all weekend long, he's been there pretty much all year long and he joins me right now from davenport, iowa. you've been on the campaign trail all weekend in iowa and you see the latest polling being -- is it being reflected out there in the field? >> reporter: we're right here in davenport, iowa, with elizabeth warren who's making her own swing here through the hawk eye state. and we're going to be looking at the difference between the national and iowa polls and largely throughout the year, the two have reflected one another, but at one p...

Swing states that will decide who is elected in the 2012, president obama leads mitt romney 47-39. he leads rick santorum 48-39. he leads ron paul 48-36. and the biggest one he has a lead over is newt gingrich. 52-32. i will say the numbers change dramatically in the last few months. polling being what they are, they can change in the economy gets worse. snapshot in time, most republicans were not expecting to see this at this stage of this race. is that a fair statement? >> eric: i don't -- why, things, the unemployment number comes down a little, the numbers go up on the obama side. they go ...

Swing states that will decide who is elected in the 2012, president obama leads mitt romney 47-39. he leads rick santorum 48-39. he leads ron paul 48-36. and the biggest one he has a lead over is newt gingrich. 52-32. i will say the numbers change dramatically in the last few months. polling being what they are, they can change in the economy gets worse. snapshot in time, most republicans were not expecting to see this at this stage of this race. is that a fair statement? >> eric: i don't -- why, things, the unemployment number comes down a little, the numbers go up on the obama side. they go ...