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this is "gps," the global public square. welcome to all of you in the united states and around the would. i'm fareed zakaria coming live to you from new york. today on the program, i'll talk to "new york times" columnist tom friedman who points out not only is the united states involved in the largest war in europe since world war ii, but america has also entered a sort of tech war with china. and an energy struggle with saudi arabia. what in the world is going on? and china's leaders, more than 2,000 of them, are gathering this week to make major decisions about the country's decisi...

Dimon says the u.s. economy is likely to be in a recession by next year, and thursday's higher than expected inflation data piles on the concerns. could we be headed to stagflation of the 1970s? joining me now is the author of "homecoming, the path to pros prosperity." welcome. let's first talk about the prospects for a recession. how likely do you think this is? >> i think it's pretty likely. and look, recessions are normal. this is the thing, we have sort of forgotten that they are supposed to happen every five, seven years, because of monetary policy, low rate, you know, a lot of easy money...