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(Larry Downing/Reuters) Welcome to the Capital Note, a newsletter about business, finance, and economics. On the menu today: FOMC meeting, tech stocks tumble, Treasurys climb, and the risks of forward guidance. FOMC Meeting Investors are once again testing the adage, “Don’t fight the Fed.” The Federal Reserve Open Markets Committee (FOMC), which is holding a press conference this afternoon, has for months signaled that it does not intend to raise interest rates until at least 2024. But since February, yields on U.S. Treasury notes have moved up, implying three rate hikes in 2023. Advert...

The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note is in a long-term trend lower and, with financial markets awash in cash, it could zigzag down to -0.5% a year from now, even if it drifts up from current levels, according to Guggenheim Investments.

Investors’ “reach for yield” puts downward pressure on 10-year Treasury rates, likely rendering the current yield unsustainable. In the more obscure corner of the money market and banking statistics is the arcane data around bank reserves and money supply. One of the most important metrics in monetary theory is the money supply gauge referred to as M2. In its simplest definition, M2 represents the amount of money in currency, demand deposits, and checking accounts in the economy (the more narrow aggregate called M1) plus “near cash”—retail money market fund balances, savings depo...

On the menu today: a defense of macroeconomics, inflation expectations rising, tech-stock tumbling, and a look at Paul Romer’s paper on technological progress.

Christine Benz: And I'm Christine Benz, director of personal finance for Morningstar, Inc. On this week’s episode we’ll feature some of our favorite clips from interviews we’ve done with portfolio managers. We’ll start this best-of episode on an obvious subject: The coronavirus pandemic. When we spoke with Allianz’s chief economic advisor, Mohamed El-Erian, in March 2020, the public health emergency had triggered a full-blown economic and financial crisis. At that very fraught moment, we asked Dr. El-Erian what he thought the correct fiscal and monetary policy response was and here...