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Here. donald trump, 44% of the vote in orange county. for this recall to succeed statewide, the rule of thumb is this. the recall needs to be running about 16 points better in any given county than donald trump ran. that s how democratic the state is. that s the challenge for recall supporters. they have to convince democrats, they have to convince biden supporters to vote for this. in a place like orange county the number to look for here is 60, is the recall anywhere near 60%. if it were to hit 60%, if it were to go over 60% in a place like orange county it bodes well for the recall passing statewide. if it is significantly under 60%, it bodes terribly for the recall statewide. we will be tracking in every county when the votes start to come in in less than an hour from now. but the challenge, lawrence, democratic state, biden won it by nearly 30 poichbts. i think you can see on the screen right there. one of the questions asked in the exit poll today, do you ....
Trump got. right now it s level with what trump got and for napa, this is the lion s share of the vote, mailin votes that just came in. recall supporters want this number higher. only thing could change it, same day vote. votes cast today yet to be counted, there have to be a flood of pro recall votes we haven t seen in past elections. pattern we ve seen in san diego and napa, first two counties that come in, benchmark is not being met for recall supporters. let me ask, traditionally we re also very eager to see l.a. county and orange county, traditionally how fast do they report? los angeles county, 10 ....
Can talk about one particular demographic group. the big picture thing that has to happen for recall supporters, they need lots of people who voted for biden in 20, who voted for newsom in 2018, who voted for clinton in 2015, who typically vote democratic. they need a lot of them to vote for the recall. take a look at this map. you see some red area. the red area you see on the typical map in california tend to be rural, smaller population areas. the big population centers are the blue areas on the state. so, for instance, this is one interesting way of looking at it. l.a. county, there s 10 million people in l.a. county right here. that s bigger than new jersey. this is 25% of all the vote in the state of california is going to come out of l.a. county. if you just add in orange county to the south, san diego, and the inland empire, san bernardino and river side forecast you look at this block of votes here, ....
Right here. that s bigger than new jersey. this is 25% of all the vote in the state of california is going to come out of l.a. county. and if you just add in orange county to the south, san diego there, and then the inland empire, this is san bernardino and riverside. if you just look at this sort of block of votes here, that is more than half the votes statewide is going to come out of this small pocket right here. and again you see it s all blue right now. so the challenge for recall supporters. just for instance if you take organ county here, biden won orange county by nine points over trump. trump got 44 points here. if the recall is going to succeed tomorrow and you re looking at a place like organ county tomorrow night the flub for the recall has got to be at least 60%. it s got to be getting in a county like orange 60% support. if biden won 53 to 44 over trump to get to 60%, a lot of people who voted for biden, a lot of democratic voters have got to support this thing. that s th ....
And so just take a look at the map right here. you see, some red here, the red hair that you see on a typical map in california, tend to be rural, smaller populations. the big population centers, are the blue areas on the state. for instance i think this is one interesting way of looking at it, l.a. county, there s 10 million people in l.a. county. that s bigger than new jersey. this is 25% of all the vote in the state of california, it s going to come out of l.a. county, and if you decide an san bernardino and riverside if you just look at the sort of block of votes, or that s more than half the votes statewide. it s going to come out of the small pocket here. and see it s all blue right now. so the challenge for recall supporters. just an instance if you take orange county here, you know biden won orange county by nine points over trump, trump got 44 points. or if the recall is going to succeed tomorrow, and you re looking at a place like orange county tomorrow night, the number fo ....