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Forbid, one day we get too restrictive policy that would end financial repression. Which year when we get there. Would we get there . Bill i think it would take longer than two years. To contract is neutral interest and right now it is below zero and it has been below zero the last five years. Prior prior to lehman brothers, it was 1 or 2 . What is the answer for a high level world that was damaged significantly in 2009 and 2010 . The fed is proceeding gradually. I think the neutral rate of interest in nominal terms is probably around 2 , 2. 5 . Is ituggesting 2019 is at 3 . It is approximatel...

One group of stocks yet to join the trump rally big tech all getting hit this week. Finishing the week in the red in fact. The question becomes are these stocks going to join soon and if not could the market keep rallying without them. I dont think theyll join the rally soon but to answer the question i think the market can rally. We had a similar conversation can the border market rally without the financials and we had different opinions but the reality was they did rally without financials. Now theyre exploding higher and were talking about can the market rally without tech and i would subm...

Stocks that lead us higher for the last few years, no longer in charge. This time buyers are swarming over the banks. Thats right, the banks. Why . Because last week in jackson hole we learned we could be facing not just one rate hike but two this year. Not only did janet yellen tell us that a rate hike could be on the table, but vice chair Steven Fisher said there might be time for more than one rate hike in a sht now who benefits from rapid rate hikes . Who makes the most money . The banks. They can take your deposits and invest them risk free at the higher rates that the fed controls and th...

So in a day when the dow gained 108 points, lets go through what the market is really saying. First translation, the same stocks that lead us higher for the last few years, no longer in charge. This time buyers are swarming over the banks. Thats right, the banks. Why . Because last week in jackson hole we learned we could be facing not just one rate hike but two this year. Not only did janet yellen tell us that a rate hike could be on the table, but vice chair Steven Fisher said there might be time for more than one rate hike in a short period of time. Now who benefits from rapid rate hikes . ...

Stocks that lead us higher for the last few years, no longer in charge. This time buyers are swarming over the banks. Thats right, the banks. Why . Because last week in jackson hole we learned we could be facing not just one rate hike but two this year. Not only did janet yellen tell us that a rate hike could be on the table, but vice chair Steven Fisher said there might be time for more than one rate hike in a shpe now who benefits from rapid rate hikes . Who makes the most money . The banks. They can take your deposits and invest them risk free at the higher rates that the fed controls and t...