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Romney you are talking about a win of 7-10 points. if you go through each of the states you can do a similar calculation. i don t want to exaggerate by saying 5 or more. but i think you will be shocked on election night by how quickly and easily these states fall into the romney column and the obama people are reading it wrong or they are reading it right and they don t want to admit it. megyn: i know you say the polls oversample democrats. the pollsters call it a random sampling of 1,000 voters. and the people self-identify what they are. if they get 8 percentage points more democrats. their defense is the country is becoming more democratic or at least the swing states are. that s technically true but actually inaccurate. while the is true they do not wait for parties, they wait for gender and ethnicity, race, la i ....
The superstorm is affecting the presidential race and laying this out. we talk about the texture of things kind of changing in at that schedule. any more details we can share? well, you ve got to recognize that the storm is going to hit the atlanta sea cost and that will affect new hampshire, a battle ground state and virginia, a battle ground state and north carolina, is now leading fairly safely into the romney column and florida, a battle ground state. and all of these could be affected and with the government closing in washington, closing government workers for tomorrow, with schools, metros, amtrak, all of these cancellations happening, it makes it virtually impossible for the ground games of these campaigns to do the organizational work that they need to do and at the same time shall the campaigns have to come up with alternate campaign events, which means they have to shift people, and then they have to generate people, find the venues to hold an alternative event and get fiv ....
Hispanics by the same number mccain lost them by four years ago, about 35 points, romney would be ahead, he would be sitting at about 48%, 49% depending. the problem is he s not. he s losing hispanics by historic margins. 50 points. near 50 points. if that s the case, then i don t see how, you know, we talk about florida. there has been some republican strategists who i think have their glasses on from the 90s who sit there and say that means florida, if romney is improving overall, then virginia, north carolina, florida move together. don t do that to florida. i wouldn t do that yet. i think there s been a mass you think florida s in play? i think florida they re all in play within the margin. i think obama is in better shape in florida today than virginia. i never would have thought i would have had that conversation. when you look at these hispanic numbers, you cannot sit there and sit there and say florida is definitely in the romney column. quickly, i want to talk a ....
Now, if you put nevada in the obama column here, slide it all the way over to show you that we can, you then see wisconsin becomes pretty important if you bring those ten over and then he has to break that one if it s if the firewall includes if nevada comes over the romney column, then he can just pick off an iowa. so when you lack at iowa and wisconsin, it all depends. if you put new hampshire into the obama column over there and let me put that over there to show you that example. some people think both new hampshire and nevada are obama states, then you have to break it. he has to come and get ohio in order to break the jam there. so you see that s the importance. the midwest firewall and then ....
Put in the romney column but certainly moving away from the president. 30 seconds to both of you. bill burton, which way do you think the momentum is going to go in the next couple of days? i think the president had such a strong debate performance and we ve seen it in polling, we ve seen it in focus groups, the fact of the matter is the president got a lot of momentum out of that last debate.debate. i think that even a month ago i would have said these states would be close, because the president was at an artificial high coming out of the convention in part because mitt romney had a terrible month for a whole number of issues. the race is where it was going to be, which is very close, but the president had. let me have you button it down, vin. i know governor romney has dispelled the major attack on him over the last year, which is the attempt by the obama campaign to vile fi him as an individual. he has to pass the commander of chief test on monday. ....