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Asked about the paul ryan plan to transform mediciare, it's no surprise because that's about the same number who told quinnipiac in may of last year the exact same thing. joining us now from washington is dana milbank and jared bernstein, an msnbc contributor and former economic adviser to the vice president. good afternoon. dana, immediately after the ryan pick was announced, now wrote paul ryan's affect on mitt romney would be quote the effect of a ball and chain. how is that holding up. you wrote it. >> i appreciate it, martin. we've seep this happen before and we know how this plays out. n...

>> thank you. uma: when you see the polls at the moment, latest polls in swing states what jumps out at you knowing the race is tightening up? >> the biggest thing that jumps out at me all the new swing states we thought a little while ago were pretty safe for president obama. so the race is becoming a little more competitive for mitt romney. and that is probably good if you're republican because romney was trailing in the electoral college. but we're talking now about las vegas as a swing state. wisconsin as a swing state. some people think michigan and pennsylvania might be in play. i think ...

Romney ryan plan to cut education. and i think ultimately, the ryan pick has taken the republicans off message. instead of focusing on the economy where they would like to have a debate we're talking about medicare, we're talking about abortion, we're talking about women's right to choose, not simply reproductive and health care choices and economic opportunity. i think that could cost him florida. the problem with that is, if romney does not win florida, he has to win every other battleground state or he loses the election. at this point, i think virginia being, new bellwether state taken ove...

This campaign spending. >> i'm with you on this, bill. fred, do you believe days of bounce s considering where we ae in the campaign and how well defined the campaign apparatus is, those days are gone? >> if you have a bounce for more than 30 minutes, you've done a good job. i think in terms of the ryan pick, it's late august and the ryan pick did help mitt romney energize the republican base. >> we'll go through a couple things. we tested 15 traits between obama and romney. obama led on 12 of them. eight of them he led by double digits. bill, the one that jumped at me, 22 points about caring ...

You as much as the hard and fast issues. obama is leading romney in all the gut check questions and i think with women, what akin does, throws that seed of doubt, yes, i'm not happy with the president, but if i -- if they make the connection if i put romney in charge it puts all those republicans in charge, do i want to go there, have that conversation about my body, about abortion, i think that -- that's the fear of the romney camp. >> would he have done better to have condi rice at his side? she may not have bought a state but she's dignified, accomplished. >> i still think the ryan pick in ...