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CA/NY vital for Democratic comeback; new maps in NC/OH could give Republicans a buffer.KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE— The overall battle for House control in 2024 starts as a Toss-up.— Relatively similar numbers of Democratic and Republican seats start in the most competitive Toss-up and Leans categories, although Republicans start with a few more targets in large part because of the likelihood that they will benefit from redistricting in North Carolina and Ohio.— Big blue states California and New York, where Republicans have made key gains over the past couple of cycles, loom large as D...

Is the red wave gaining steam?

Plus 6 rating changes.KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE— The spending decisions by big outside House groups can inform us about the most competitive House races.— So far, outside groups have spent money in 57 House districts. The lion’s share of those districts that have seen spending are held by Democrats, indicating that Democrats are playing significantly more defense than Republicans.— The vast majority of the districts we rate as the most competitive — those in the Toss-up or Leans categories — have seen at least some outside spending so far.

Written by John Couvillon of JMC Enterprises/JMC Analytics and Polling JMC writes that theoretically, the Midterms should be a good year for GOP candidates. However, there are several challenges to consider. Now that election season is here (technically, three more states – and Louisiana on Novemb

The most question marks about 2022 lie west of the Mississippi; rating changes in MD, NY, OR.KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE— The 5 governorships we see as Toss-ups are all located west of the eastern time zone: Arizona, Kansas, Nevada, Wisconsin, and — now — Oregon.— The large number of incumbents running this year may limit the number of governorships that change hands.— Democrats continue to have the 2 clearest pickups, the open seats in Maryland and Massachusetts. However, Democrats also are defending 4 of the 5 Toss-ups.