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Congress to hold an impeachment inquiry. >> we heard there was no collusion, no obstruction. it was the same darn conclusion. that to me was the takeaway. >> we're unveiling a new cnn poll right now. it shows 43% approve of the job the president is doing, no movement at all from a month ago and virtually no change since his very first week in office. a majority still do not trump impeached and removed from office. 41% say they do. that's up by four points since april but still within the poll's sampling error. with me to share their reporting and insights, eliana johnson from politico, cnn's j...

Screening of likely voters. they say the error margin is 3% to 4%. that's nonsense. that's sampling error. that assumes everything else, including the screening, for likely voters is 100% right. nate silver is a clerk who compiles polls. those probabilities he comes up with are meaningless because they're no better than the inaccurate polls on which they're based. >> so you said you have a gut feeling about donald trump's presidency. you predicted he would win it. now you have another prediction, which is based on your instinct but nonetheless, obviously, you've been proven right before. so, w...

Could find for 608 state level senator and governor races between 1998 and 2014 comparing those poll results with actual electoral results find the historical margin of error plus or minus 6 to 7 points. that's an error range of 12 to 14, not typically reported 6 or 7. expand on that, please. >> polls can be wrong for two reasons. we say, sampling error and non-sampling error. it's because you sample a finite number of people and like drawing bulls from the urn. you won't see the entire population. that's the margin of error. not sampling error is because you're not getting the right people or...

>> so from that same summation of your work, i, too, want to quote. i'm going to put it up on the screen. i thought this was remarkable. we examined -- this is part of your research, 4,221 late-campaign polls, every public poll we could find, for 608 state level presidential senate and governor's races between 1998 and 2014, comparing those poll results with actual electoral results, we find the historical margin of error is plus or minus six to seven percentage points, yes, that's a error range of 12 to 14 points not the typical reported 6 or 7. explain that fleez. >> we say sampling error an...

Bolduan. >> i'm john berman. big political news this morning, or huge in donald trump language. so, what happens when a candidate who calls himself a winner is no longer winning? for the first time in a long time, it is happening. a brand-new poll from cbs news and the new york times shows ben carson surging ahead of donald trump. carson now has a four-point lead nationwide. >> yes, that's within the sampling error. yes, it's also the first time in a major national poll that carson has topped trump, and another yes for you, it all happens on the eve of the next republican presidential debate. ...