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Of 2007, i believe we were maybe 30 points behind hillary clinton, but we had a plan, and that plan was to win the iowa caucuses, and we focused there, spent 87 days, there, and that did win, that changed everything. kamala harris has time to make a play in this race, and we ought to remember as we look at these national polls, this is a sequential process, it begins in iowa, runs through new hampshire, nevada, south carolina, and then on to the other states. and iowa and these early states are going to make a decision as to who shall live politically and who shall not in this case. >> i know ...

Averages. he surged into the lead. he's taken most of the support that had been going to carson and he is the guy to watch and, you know, trump versus cruz is the race to watch in iowa and cruz is surging at the right time. granted, there is more than a month before the iowa caucuses. look at the polling in new hampshire. donald trump still the leader there but he is on a very, very gradual downward slope and you have three people on his heels rubio, cruz, and christie who just watched those guys over the month and see if they pop. the second thing is as dana pointed out, this is a sequential ...

Rubio, cruz, and christie who just watched those guys over the month and see if they pop. the second thing is as dana pointed out, this is a sequential process. we don't have a national primary we don't all vote on the same day. it's one race after another and what happens in iowa is going to have a huge influence on what happened in new hampshire and that's going to have a huge influence on what happens in south carolina. and then finally, you know, to continue being the grinch here, the head-to-head polls, those don't -- the head-to-head general election polls, those don't really tell you --...

And is fickle and is looking for something specific this year that really is different from anything that we've seen before. >> the national polls, as you know, ryan, we've all studied them, they're very important. i don't want to belittle the national polls among republicans or democrats, for that matter. they generate funds, fund-raising and all that kind of stuff. but the statewide polls in the early states are more important. in iowa, carson's ahead. but if you take a look at new hampshire, south carolina, nevada, florida, so many of the earlier states, trump remains significantly ahead ri...

He's a 32% and trump is at 18%. what is pushing carson to this significant advantage? >> two things, one in iowa obviously being someone whose very religious, appeals to e van gel ki -- evangelical voters and he's not a politician. i do think he also, he's not well-known. we haven't -- he hasn't gone through the scrutiny phase yet. the media hasn't treated him like a front runner and when you get treated like a front runner, you get more negative coverage. this is a testing period for carson and he'll get more coverage and will come scrutiny and we'll see if he's ready. i think this is major d...