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Recoiled against the negative ads and saw the obama campaign was not negative. i'm not supposed obama got the message that you won't win by yelling at them. >> are you concerned there might be a october surprise that some people suggest could happen? >> anything can happen. even in this last debate, it could still sw three or four%%. right now it's too close to call in the elect college. >> florida, i believe the numbers are so strong in florida, i would take that off the swing state list and give that to mitt romney. >> wow, thank you for your valuable insights. >> a ten-year-old colorado gir...

Six-point difference there? is that the latest? >> we have one, 48-44 president obama in the lead. that is okay. still a very close race in pennsylvania. megyn: how did we get a 4 point difference in pennsylvania? couple months ago, pennsylvania is gone. president obama will win pennsylvania. now it is tightening. >> all the states added to the swing state list were thought to be safe for obama. now are going the other way. michigan i think is vet comfortable for the obama campaign. they had a little bit of a scare there. the numbers aren't as big. wisconsin has shifted. pennsylvania shifted. ...

Did we add oklahoma to the swing state list? i'm not sure. i think what they do there is to make it look like these are non-political events so they throw 18 state they can't win and throw in the rest. it's an energy state. but yeah, no, he's going to go to the swing states he can talk about energy which is an issue in those states. >> let's focus on the campaign strategy. there is a smoke screen, presidential events but really actually probably campaign events. and we've gotten more data about the obama re-elect campaign in reebt days. we've been talking about the gop race. i thought this was...

As live free or diers love to remind us, it's a state with a huge independent streak. how those independents go will tell us a lot about whether republicans can make a comeback in new england. two house seats and a senate seat on the table there. number eight, we go to pennsylvania. the republicans have a huge shot at sweeping both the governor's race and the senate race. can you imagine if they sweep those two races, suddenly, and pennsylvania is truly back on the swing state list for 2012? we'll see. number seven, arkansas, the democrat's last stronghold in the south. but this year with sena...

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