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Have you ever heard someone say “90% of people that trade options lose money.”? I certainly have. Looking at an options chain can be a dizzying exercise for the uninformed. Delta, Gamma, Theta, Rho, Vega – and let’s not forget – implied volatility? Single, spread, butterfly, condor. What does it all mean?  So what is an option from a high level view?  At the end of the day, an options contract is just a derivative like any other stock, bond, ETF, or other tradable security based on an underlying asset. Most people will look at these other forms of derivatives and ha...

In Part I of this research article, I tried to highlight the major market cycle phases that often drive volatility, uncertainty, and bigger trends in the US/Global markets as well as Precious Metals.  Additionally, my team and I highlighted the technical confluence pattern that has setup as Gold prices have rallied above downward sloping price channels (price Flags) recently.  This confluence of technical patterns, while we are transitioning into a post-COVID-19 global economy, suggests that excess credit/debt issues throughout the global financial markets are seeking safety...

Stock Market Cycles Tipping From Euphoria To Complacency – Gold Setting Up For Rally Above $2000 Again? :: The Market Oracle ::

If you’ve been following my recent research posts, you already know my research team and I are expecting some very big volatility and trends in the US and global markets over the next 12 to 48 months.  The US Dollar Index fell below a critical support level above 90 recently.  This move lower after attempting to bottom in early 2021 suggests our broad Appreciation/Depreciation cycle phase research is continuing to play out.  This means we should start to prepare for bigger trends, more volatility, and the potential for broad market price rotation over the next few years. Y...

We recently completed some interesting research related to one of our newest Custom Indexes – the Commodities to Smart Cash Index (C2SC Heat Index) – weighted by the US Dollar and VIX.  We’ve been reviewing this new index for months watching it to see how it reacts to various trends in Lumber, Gold, Treasury Yields, the Smart Cash Index, and other weighted values.  Recently, we added the Fed Funds Rate to this chart and suddenly things took on a different perspective. We had drawn horizontal lines on the Commodities to Smart Cash index highlighting historical high, low, ...