We recently completed some interesting research related to one of our newest Custom Indexes – the Commodities to Smart Cash Index (C2SC Heat Index) – weighted by the US Dollar and VIX. We’ve been reviewing this new index for months watching it to see how it reacts to various trends in Lumber, Gold, Treasury Yields, the Smart Cash Index, and other weighted values. Recently, we added the Fed Funds Rate to this chart and suddenly things took on a different perspective. We had drawn horizontal lines on the Commodities to Smart Cash index highlighting historical high, low, and confluence price levels. Historically, when we see a chart that channels in a sideways range, one can often identify high and low price thresholds while also trying to find a confluence level (where a continued rise or decline in price is likely to continue). We can see how the US Fed reacted to rising inflationary concerns almost immediately as the C2SC Index rose near or above 6.5 (the RED Confluence level) throughout the past 25 years. Each time, in 1994, 1999, and 2005, when a period of increasing inflationary trends, the Fed was quick to act to contain inflation. The only time the Fed acted differently was in 2013~2015 and in 2020~now.