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“A bubble is a market cycle that is characterized by the rapid escalation of market value, particularly in the price of assets.  Typically, what creates a bubble is a surge in asset prices driven by exuberant market behavior. During a bubble, assets typically trade at a price  that greatly exceeds the asset’s intrinsic value. Rather, the price does not align with the  fundamentals of the asset.“ This definition is suitable for our discussion; there are three components of a  “bubble.”  The first two, price and valuation, are readily dismissed during the inflation phase. Jer...

Forward Returns Continue To Fall One of the interesting aspects of “bull markets" is the further they go, the lower forward returns fall. In hindsight, such an idea seems counter-intuitive, but ultimately it always comes down to valuations. As Warren Buffett once quipped: “Price is what you pay. Value is what you get." Please share this article - Go to very top of page, right hand side, for social media buttons. ( When markets are incredibly exuberant, as they are currently, it is not surprising that such is commonly associated with previous market peaks. The chart below shows the annual...

Five Reasons To Curb Your Enthusiasm.” This analysis is interesting, particularly when analysts are rushing to upgrade both economic and earnings estimates. More importantly, investors are incredibly long-biased in portfolios, with equity allocations reaching some of the highest levels in history. What Subramanian questions, and something we have asked previously, is all the  “good news” already  “priced in?” “Amid increasingly euphoric sentiment, lofty valuations, and peak stimulus, we continue to believe the market has overly priced in the good news. We remain bullish the e...

Dogecoin steals the limelight in a golden week for cryptocurrency Crypto at a glance A splash of red adorns the top of the charts this morning, a trickle of blood across this week’s otherwise-sunny landscape. The past few weekends have been good to the crypto markets, but does a swathe of single digit drops across the major coins signal bad tidings ahead? Or will it see another huge push past recently-set all-time highs? Bitcoin has seen a slight correction, down roughly two per cent over the last 24 hours and currently trading at just below $62,000. The leading cryptocurr...

Basking in the Coinbase IPO glow, all-time highs litter the boards Crypto at a glance It’s a sea of green today as the Good Ship Cryptocurrency sails on the crest of a wave of all-time highs. It’s Cheech and Chong time for the crypto markets. The fuse has been lit and we are at the show. Where will it go? Nobody knows. With Coinbase’s direct listing on Nasdaq kicking off today, almost every coin under the sun is bathing in the warm glow of the notorious ‘Coinbase effect’ – the price bump a coin experiences when it first gets added to the leading US exchange.