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The Monthly CPI Indicator gained 3.6% in the year to April compared to 3.5%yr in March and 3.4%yr in both February and January.

Next week highlights include rate decisions from the RBA, BoE, Banxico, BCB, and Riksbank. We also see the release of the ECB Minutes and BoJ Summary of Opinions. Data wise, the Canada jobs report, China Trade, UK GDP and Norwegian CPI take the limelight.

The February print was a softer than Westpac’s forecast of 3.8% and the market median forecast of 3.5%yr. Taken at face value, the February Monthly CPI Indicator suggests that if there are any risks to our current March quarter CPI forecast of 0.7%qtr, it is to the downside. However, the quarterly CPI is not a simple average of the Monthly CPI Indicator and history has taught us that a simple ‘face value’ estimate can be misleading.

Australian Dollar: March Recovery, but Bigger Picture Remains Weak

The Monthly CPI Indicator rose 3.4% in the year to January, in line with the outcome recorded in December. This remains  the equal softest print for monthly inflation estimate since November 2021.