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Trump is already scrambling the map this year. In utah where the Mormon Electorate is especially unfavorable to trump his lead is down to 5. 5. Prompting the campaign to dispatch mike pence to Salt Lake City less than two weeks before the election to do damage control. Hes there tomorrow. Mitt romney himself a mormon won utah by 48 in 2012. Given trumps Polling Deficit his lack of ads it came as a surprise that according to the Washington Post trump has stopped holding highdollar fundraisers and relying on online donations which tend to be much smaller. Thats after Campaign Financial reports s...

Ten people would vote for barack obama. 90 for mitt romney. you look at that and then you also look at your turnout score. how likely are you to vote if somebody were not to remind you? you have a score of 100-1 on every single voter in that state. what you want to do with early vote, in most states, you want your supporters who have a middling turnout score, folks you aren't superconfident they will vote on election day unless you remind them. you want them to vote early. if somebody lass a high turnout score, irrespective if you remind them or not. >> you have the two scores. how likely am i...

Through their age, their education level, their ethnicity to be pretty confident who they're actually voting for based on the models you have. >> no, exactly right. you look at two separate data points. the first is what we call a preference candidate model. every voter will have a score from 100-1. out of 100 mitch stewarts, barack obama would get 1 vote. ten people would vote for barack obama. 90 for mitt romney. you look at that and then you also look at your turnout score. how likely are you to vote if somebody were not to remind you? you have a score of 100-1 on every single voter in that...