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Up. the polling shows stacey abrams is neck in neck. depending on your likely voter model she's two points down within the margin of error. if you look at the breakdown though with black voters it's overwhelmingly abrams. with independents it's abrams and suburban voters it's her, college graduates, women. sort of a familiar breakdown. if there is a path for stacy abrams, it has to go beyond the african-american community even though there is 30% of the georgia vote that is black. is her campaign breaking out of that black community and making enough resonance with white voters in georgia that...

But also what's very notable is you end up having latinos, women and younger voters with much higher enthusiasm and interest in the election than in our previous surveys this year. and what's really interesting about that higher interest from latinos, women and moillennials is it translates to a lead on the congressional preference, having a 50% to 51% lead. among likely voters it's 8. what stands out is that normally in midterm election environments, you end up having republicans with the edge among likely voters. their voters, the ones who traditionally go to the polls. a lot of the parts of...

Florida. brand new cnn polling shows democrat andrew gillum is up by 12 points. mark, you're there for the florida debate between gillum and desantis. what is behind this big lead? >> well, a couple things. one is we're seeing right now one of two things. we're seeing democratic enthusiasm, what ron is talking about. democrats coming together, certainly getting behind andrew gillum, who was somebody not expected to win the democratic primary. he was a long shot to win it. now we're seeing a coalescing behind that. this poll seems to follow the voter model we're seeing develop here in florida, ...

Was 52-40. but wait, there's more. among likely voters, democrats' lead grows, from 50-49. it's the first time ever in our polling that our likely voter model shows a better number for the democrats than the registered voter number. normally, in midterms, republicans have the likely voter advantage. so what's different this year? it's the heightened enthusiasm for democrats among millennials, latinos, and younger women. groups that historically have had low turnout rates, but are making it into our likely voter model this year. as for president trump, he has his best numbers yet in our poll, a...

The ti is blackburn moving ahead in the mid-single digits when you add it together. and this is hot off of the press, new jersey who was not supposed to be in anybody's r radar, but bob menendez had the hung jury rye, and this week, the democrats got nervous about this the race to pour in $3 million the make sure that he hangs on. this is a new poll showing him leading by actually nine points in the likely voter model there, and this is quinnipiac, but the new one is nine points. sorry, thought we had a different one up there. and in texas, ted cruz is in the lead. in the battleground, if new ...