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Changed the narrative around the race. i think had it not been for donald trump, ted cruz very likely would have been the republican nominee. that's where the ground game very much still does matter. elizabeth warren actually had a very formidable ground game in the early states. that's why the trump campaign is internally somewhat concerned about her prospects and just to the point you made about the rust belt and this tension in the democratic party, donald trump won those states by maybe 20,000 to 22,000 votes. the margins are really, really tight. the question for democrats is are they goi...

And other folks that may make a big difference in three or four of those house races. >> real quickly on beto, he's at 47. that's his top. he spent 80 million bucks for two or three points. it's crazy. >> if the voter models are correct, and i never have any idea -- >> but it could win three or four house seats for the democrats in d.texas. >> beto has all the money and enthusiasm in the world, but when you read the stories about his campaign, they don't have an internal polling director. why? they have no strategy to flip republican voters in a ruby red state. that seems like malpractice. >> ...

People to call real people. they don't use a robot to call your house so they don't actually who is picking up the phone, there's some public poll that is don't even use likely voter models, they'll use the census as turnout model which has no correlation to what who will actually turn out. heather: if i answer the phone and there's a poll and a robot comes on i immediately hang up. >> you hang up, we have a harder time getting responses, even more if i'm calling heather's house, i could be getting your husband, i could be your getting your brother, i have no way to confirm that, we need to lo...

2012 campaign. he's the democratic strategist. here in new york with me, noelle nikpour, author of "branding america" along with patrick murray. patrick, i'll start with you. we have all the polling numbers out there. i'm just curious what you're seeing in your own numbers. how big has the change and the energy balance been between the two parties, and how much staying party does that have with three weeks to go? >> we saw a summer where democrats were normally energized. a lot of what we've seen over the past four or five weeks have been i think republicans coming home naturally. we talk abou...

Purchase this data from and frankly do. this is how we build out voter models talked about coming out of the last two elections. there are two type of groups making an issue out of it. the democrat partisans, and the second is states rights republicans like you hear in mississippi that are -- >> feisty about this. >> they can jump in the lake. >> go to the gulf of mexico. >> i don't think it would matter who is asking in his mind. but we can already get the information. and the social security is optional. we made that very clear. what's funny, jason cantor, the former secretary of state of mi...