Stocks: What To Make Of Wall Street's Sky-High Optimism
From Elliott Wave International
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From Elliott Wave International
In many global regions, economies are flourishing. For example, here are two headlines about the U.S.: What America's Startup Boom Could Mean For The Economy (npr.com, June 29) Inflation Rose in June as Economic Recovery Continues (WSJ, July 13) The goings-on in the United Kingdom provide another example. Employers in the UK are hiring people at the highest rate in more than six years. Plus, business and consumer spending are climbing swiftly -- at the fastest clip in a quarter of a century. So, it wasn't surprising to see this June 18 CNBC headline: Morgan Stanley picks the global stocks set...
The topic of inflation has been grabbing a lot of financial headlines. Indeed, financial journalists have "blamed" inflation for recent stock market sell-offs. On May 11, when the Dow Industrials closed 475 points lower, an intraday headline said (Reuters): Wall Street drops on inflation jitters, led by tech stocks The next day, on March 12, the sell-off persisted. Another financial news source noted (CNBC): Dow tumbles 680 points in worst decline since January as hot inflation reading spooks investors So, at least two news organizations agree that inflation was the culprit behind the sell-of...
Markets go where they go. The news is just rationalization. As Elliott Wave International has noted many times, the mainstream financial press always tries to find a reason for a given trading day's stock market action. In other words, if stocks happen to be up for the day, many financial journalists will say it was because of this or that "positive" news. If stocks happen to be down for the day, you got it, these journalists will ignore the positive news and search for something "negative" that happened in the country or world and say that was the reason stocks went down.
In the past year, the stock market has been flooded by inexperienced investors. Here's a May 12, 2020 CNBC headline: Young investors pile into stocks, seeing 'generational-buying moment' instead of risk The message of that headline matches up with the sentiment among many investors that the stock market is at the start of a boom -- not near an end. Yes, financial history shows that the same psychology has been on display before, i.e., the heralding of "The New Economy" in 2000 -- just as stocks were topping. And, if you want to go all the way back to the 1929 top, the proclamation of "A New ...