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Wisconsin, when nbc releases its brand-new battleground poll. let me bring in nbc's senior political editor mark murray for a preview. mark, obviously, we know the importance of these two states, but you can't say it enough. >> that's right, tamron. they only combine make up 16 electoral votes, but they're very important to each campaign's path to the 270 electoral votes needed to win the white house. if president obama, for example, can win both iowa and wisconsin, all he has to do is actually win ohio, and he surpasses 270 votes. if he doesn't win ohio, he can do so and get to 270 or beyond ...

Why is that significant, bob? it is significant because paul ryan goes to cuyahoga county with condoleezza rice and thursday bruce springsteen goes there with bill clinton. they are going to there to try to find those votes. >> that is key for democrats. if obama wins ohio, he will get out the vote in this county where democrats out number republicans three to one. the goal for the obama campaign, is keep it close. most populous county in ohio. that is the key. barack obama has to get the vote out if he is going to win ohio. tradition is if you win ohio you win the presidency. there are other ...

A genuine horse race, or, you know, is this all much ado about nothing? if romney is closing in florida, and north carolina and virginia, all these states but he doesn't win ohio, does he have a realistic shot still, david? >> it is going to be very difficult and very challenging. i mean we are planning to poll ohio at least once, maybe twice in the next three weeks. and so, the outcome is going to be key. but you're absolutely right, the demographics are important but you also have early voting that has taken place over the last week. and given, romney's universally acclaimed debate performan...

If he's going to try to get all the way there. >> richard wolffe, the bottom line is if mitt romney cannot win ohio, and at this point you've got early voting going in, absentee voting going in, that's happening in 43 states. but if you're romney, you're most concerned about ohio because if you're down by five percentage points in a poll, some say it's two, some say it's three, but if we are sitting at 4% or 5%, that's happening while early voting's going on. mitt romney -- bottom line is if he doesn't win ohio, he can still be elected president of the united states, but he's got to run the ta...

Swing state in order to win the white house if he doesn't win ohio. >> dave: sweep, colorado, iowa, virginia. >> clayton: florida, pennsylvania. pick up all the other. the population in ohio 11.5 million weeks and median income $47,000 and again, the unemployment rate there a little lower than it has been for the national average. high school grads, 25 plus, 87% of the state's population there, 87.4%. >> and look at the people below the poverty line, 14% of the state is below the poverty line and then 24% has a bachelors degree or higher. it's obviously, a cross section of america. >> clayton:...