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Written by Steven HansenEconintersect's Economic Index forecast sees a bump in the economic rate of growth at the Main Street level partially driven by comparisons to the recession one year ago. However, economic potential is better than the pre-COVID conditions as the economy was weakening well before the pandemic hit.
The data continues to be affected by the pandemic, comparisons to the recession one year ago, and now inflation. Inflation is now seriously impacting growth, Analyst Opinion of Personal Income and Expenditures The note from the BEA says it all: The estimate for April personal income and outlays was impacted by the continued government response to COVID-19. Economic impact payments associated with the American Rescue Plan Act of 2021 (which was enacted on March 11, 2021) continued but were at a lower level than in March. The full economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic cannot be quantified i...
Written by Steven HansenThe headlines say the durable goods new orders declined. Our analysis shows the rolling averages improved.
April 2021 Headline Industrial Production Improves The headlines say seasonally adjusted Industrial Production (IP) improved month-over-month - and remains in expansion year-over-year due to comparison to the pandemic lockdown period one year ago. Our analysis shows the three-month rolling average improved. Analyst Opinion of Industrial Production The best way to view this is the 3-month rolling averages which improved. Note that: Total industrial production increased 0.7 percent in April. The indexes for mining and utilities increased 0.7 percent and 2.6 percent, respectively; the index for ...
Written by Steven HansenYear-over-year import price indices inflation grew from +7.0 % to +10.6 %.