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The Ukraine crisis has exposed Ankara’s limits on foreign policy, yet Turkey’s President Erdogan can still score points from rapprochement with the UAE and Israel.
Talks of another territorial swap are back on the table now, amidst a common Turkish-Russian belief that the US is preparing to disengage from the Middle East, as they did with Afghanistan.
The AUKUS deal and the Franco-Greek pact point to what is likely to be the defining characteristic of the alliance in the mid-2020s, not a mighty coalition of thirty states but a toolbox.