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Mortgage Investors Bracing For Fed's Taper May Be Disappointed

(Bloomberg) The best mortgage bonds to buy now may be the ones the Federal Reserve is purchasing, because the securities might benefit the most if macro optimism fades.So far this year, some investors have been growing more hopeful about an economic recovery as a new U.S. stimulus package is rolled out. This has markets looking for any positive macro signs that may translate to the Fed tapering its direct purchases of mortgage bonds, according to a recent Bank of America report.A slowdown in central bank buying would hurt demand for the 30-year uniform mortgage-backed securities with 2% and 2.5% coupons that it tends to buy. Concerns about tapering are part of why those securities have generated excess returns over Treasuries of just 0.05% and 0.06% this year, performing far worse than mortgage bonds with 3% and 3.5% coupons. Those higher-coupon bonds have generated excess returns of 0.75% and 0.65%, respectively.But investor optimism about recovery may not last. Looking at bond yiel ....

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Industry Voice: The tailwinds lifting falling angels


Industry Voice: The tailwinds lifting falling angels
Fallen angels have historically delivered excess returns. Here’s how.
BNY Mellon Investment Management
In theory, fallen angels and Ba-rated bonds (the highest quality in the high yield category) should generate comparable performance. There is considerable crossover between the two segments: 90% of fallen angel bonds are currently rated Ba, and therefore by definition the Ba bucket contains a notable percentage of fallen angels. The theory gains further credence when comparing option-adjusted spreads (OAS), which are quite similar.
The similarities do not extend to performance, however.
Historically, fallen angels have delivered greater excess returns (total returns minus duration-matched Treasury returns) than both Ba-rated bonds and the broad high yield market. ....

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