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Andrew Powell, José Juan Ruiz Gómez
There appears to be no real trade-off between growth rates in 2020 and deaths due to Covid-19 in the same year. Countries that suffered more deaths tended to have lower growth and vice versa (see Figure 1). Unfortunately, many countries in Latin America and the Caribbean are located in the wrong sector of the graph. The region has only 8% of the global population but accounts for more than 25% of deaths and lost an estimated 7.0% of GDP, the largest loss in a single year since the struggle for independence 200 years ago.
1
Source: Cavallo and Powell (2021)
Tourism-dependent countries such as the Bahamas, Barbados, and Jamaica suffered deeper falls in GDP than might have been anticipated given the level of deaths (they would be located above a naïve regression line), while Brazil and Chile suffered more deaths than could have been expected given the depth of the recessions. The crisis is threatening to leave the region with hig ....

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