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USD/CAD testing 1.2600 level, as bears eye 2021 lows


2/19/2021 5:40:29 PM GMT
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By Joel Frank
USD/CAD is back within striking distance of 2021 lows at 1.25889 and is testing the 1.2600 mark.
CAD seems to be deriving support from a sharp rise in Canadian bond yields.
USD/CAD is back within striking distance of 2021 lows at 1.25889 and is testing the 1.2600 mark. US bond yields continue to rally, with the US 10-year yield now up over 6bps on the day and above the 1.35% level. Upside seems to be as a result of increasing fears that the global (and namely US) economies are going to “over-heat” later on in the year/in 2022 as a result of 1) the unprecedented amount of fiscal and monetary stimulus unleashed in 2020 to combat Covid-19 pandemic induced economic weakness and 2) vaccines bringing the pandemic under control and unleashing more than a year’s worth of pent-up demand. ....

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EUR/USD Forecast: Could Fall To 1.1885, The 61.8% Retracement Of The November/January Rally


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European Retail Sales beat expectations in December, rising by 2.0% in the month.
US employment-related data was mostly encouraging ahead of the NFP report.
EUR/USD could fall to 1.1885, the 61.8% retracement of the November/January rally.
The EUR/USD pair lost the 1.2000 level, falling to a fresh 2021 low of 1.1957. The pair is down for a fourth consecutive day as investors continue to buy the greenback on hopes for a new US stimulus package. Resurgent Treasury yields are a sign of the better mood, on the rise ever since the week started.
Encouraging data came from both shores of the Atlantic. The EU published December Retail Sales which came in better than expected, rising by 2% in the MoM and 0.6% when compared to a year earlier. In the US, employment-related figures were mixed, as the Challenger Job Cuts report showed that  US.based companies announced layoffs of  79,552, in January from 77,030 in December. Initial Jobless Claims decreased to 77 ....

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Interest Rate Threshold Keeps Dropping


Interest Rate Threshold Keeps Dropping
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Initial Jobless claims totaled 900,000 for the week ending January 16
th, after shedding 965,000 in the week prior. These numbers are over four times greater than they were a year ago. I find this to be not only sad but also remarkable in that we are still losing close to one million jobs per week a year after the Wuhan virus first broke out. More signs of economic stress were found in the December Retail Sales report. Sales dropped 0.7% last month, and the data for November was revised down to show a decline of 1.4%, instead of the 1.1% previously reported. Figures such as these illustrate just how fragile the economy still is, which will automatically put upward pressure on the level of outstanding debt. And, gives the new Administration impetus to pass more and bigger fiscal stimulus packages. That s really bad news for any of us left that still care about debt and deficits. ....

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