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Doing Business with Hackers, Terrorists and Dictators

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Doing Business with Hackers, Terrorists and Dictators
June 7, 2021
The Newsletter
Dr. Kenneth Dekleva served as a Regional Medical Officer/Psychiatrist (including 5 years at the U.S. Embassy Moscow, Russian Federation) with the U.S. Dept. of State during 2002-2016, and is currently Associate Professor of Psychiatry and Director, Psychiatry-Medicine Integration, UT Southwestern Medical Center, Dallas, TX. The views expressed are entirely his own and do not represent the official views of the U.S. Government, the U.S. Dept. of State, or UT Southwestern Medical Center. ....

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The Superforecasters

How a college-based team of students, faculty and volunteers bested government intelligence community prognosticators and gave birth to Superforecasting. ....

United States , Barbara Mellers , Dominic Heaney , Don Moore , Welton Chang , Phil Tetlock , Shannon Gifford , National Public Radio , Good Judgment Inc , Hebrew University , School Of Arts , Wharton School , University Of California At Berkeley , Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency , University Of Pennsylvania , Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity , Rice University , Good Judgment Project , Defense Advanced Research Projects , Aggregative Contingent , Good Judgment Project Superforecasters , Helaine Rich , All Things Considered , Predictions Right , Good Judgment , Chief Technology ,

Get a COVID-19 shot, win $1 million

May 19, 2021
Over the next couple of months, other countries will probably surpass the U.S. on rates of COVID-19 vaccination. The reason is not lack of supply, but vaccine hesitancy. How can more Americans be persuaded to get their shots? Insights from behavioral economics can help.
The U.S. as a whole is approaching having 40% of the population fully vaccinated, but the proportion varies widely from state to state. Almost half of people in Maine have had their shots, but only about 30% in Georgia, Tennessee, Louisiana and Wyoming.
About a quarter of Americans say they don’t want to get vaccinated. That share has declined slightly over the past six months, but it’s higher than in most other countries. In almost every developed economy except France, the share of people who would get vaccinated if offered the chance is 10 to 20 percentage points higher than in the U.S. So as vaccines become increasingly available worldwide, the vaccination rate in the U.S. ....

United States , Zeke Emanuel , Alison Buttenheim , Scott Gottlieb , Peterr Orszag , Centers For Disease , Drug Administration , Katy Milkman Of The University Pennsylvania , Geisinger Health System , University Of Pennsylvania , Office Of Management , Congressional Budget Office , Good Judgment Project , Drug Administration Commissioner Scott Gottlieb , Penn Medicine , Disease Control , Bloomberg Opinion , Covid 19 , ஒன்றுபட்டது மாநிலங்களில் , ஸீக் இமானுவேல் , ஸ்காட் காட்‌லீப் , மையங்கள் க்கு நோய் , கட்டி பால்மேன் ஆஃப் தி பல்கலைக்கழகம் பென்சில்வேனியா , கேய்சிங்கேர் ஆரோக்கியம் அமைப்பு , பல்கலைக்கழகம் ஆஃப் பென்சில்வேனியா , அலுவலகம் ஆஃப் மேலாண்மை ,

Who was better at predicting the course of the pandemic – experts or the public?

Early on in the pandemic, it seemed as if the media was asking anyone with potentially relevant expertise – scientists, doctors, statisticians – to tell us what was coming. These individuals were frequently asked to give off-the-cuff answers to questions about how bad the pandemic might get, even though there was little data to go on.
The use of expert predictions like these are important. They have the potential to shape public opinion and policy and influence how events unfold. Yet these have often been disregarded, particularly on social media, where alternative predictions by non-experts (including misinformation about experts’ forecasts) spread easily. ....

United Kingdom , Good Judgment Project , Covid 19 , Coronavirus Insights , ஒன்றுபட்டது கிஂக்டம் , நல்ல தீர்ப்பு ப்ராஜெக்ட் ,

How the U.S. Government Can Learn to See the Future

How the U.S. Government Can Learn to See the Future
Editor’s Note:
Intelligence assessments are made under tremendous time pressure with imperfect information, so it is no surprise that they are often wrong. They can be better, but the intelligence community often fails to use the best analytic techniques. Julia Ciocca, Michael C. Horowitz, Lauren Kahn and Christian Ruhl of Perry World House at the University of Pennsylvania explain the current deficiencies in assessment techniques and argue that rigorous probabilistic forecasting, keeping score of assessments, and employing the “wisdom of crowds” produces better results.
Daniel Byman

In 1973, then-Secretary of State and National Security Adviser Henry Kissinger argued that policymaking could be reduced to a process of “making complicated bets about the future,” noting that it would be helpful if he could be supplied with “estimates of the relevant betting odds.” ....

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