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Calculated Risk: Schedule for Week of September 26, 2021

Calculated Risk: Schedule for Week of September 26, 2021
calculatedriskblog.com - get the latest breaking news, showbiz & celebrity photos, sport news & rumours, viral videos and top stories from calculatedriskblog.com Daily Mail and Mail on Sunday newspapers.

European-central-bank-forum-on-banking , Census-bureau , Dallas-fed-survey-of-manufacturing-activity-for , Us-senate-committee-on-banking , Panel-discussion , Mortgage-bankers-association , National-index , Personal-income , Kansas-city-fed , Chair-powell , Durable-goods-orders

USD/CAD struggles at 1.2700 as WTI trades above $74.00

USD/CAD struggles at 1.2700 as WTI trades above $74.00
fxstreet.com - get the latest breaking news, showbiz & celebrity photos, sport news & rumours, viral videos and top stories from fxstreet.com Daily Mail and Mail on Sunday newspapers.

New-york , United-states , China , Canada , Chinese , American , Canadian , Us-census-bureau , Federal-reserve , New-home-sales , Gross-domestic-product

GBP/USD Weekly Forecast: Will the Bank of England step out?

7/30/2021 3:23:53 PM GMT
Improving COVID and strengthening economy encourage sterling.
Bank of England meeting next week brings rate hike speculation.
The contrast between Federal Reserve and BOE policies benefits the pound.
FXStreet Forecast Poll sees consolidation below 1.4000.
The rapidly improving coronavirus situation in the UK, a strengthening economy and rising inflation helped propel the sterling to its best close against the US dollar in a month. The GBP/USD rose 1.2% on the week, is up 2.1% since its low of 1.3628 eight sessions ago and reversed on Friday just shy of the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the May 31 to July 20 4.1% decline.
Expectations for a positive economic assessment out of the Bank of England (BOE) and perhaps hints at the timing and conditions for a reduction in the Asset Purchase Facility were an undercurrent for the week’s gains.

United-kingdom , British , Jerome-powell , Market-committee , Federal-reserve , Forecast-poll , Asset-purchase-facility , Federal-open-market-committee , Housing-prices , Consumer-price-index , Durable-goods-orders , Chair-powell

USD/JPY Weekly Forecast: The view ahead is the same as the view behind

7/30/2021 12:53:39 PM GMT
Prospect of higher US interest rates fade on weak data, Fed dovishness.
USD/JPY loses 110.00 on Tuesday, stays below on Friday.
Technical considerations dominate near-term USD/JPY action, bias weakly lower.
FXStreet Forecast Poll expects a near term decline.
Prospects for higher US interest rates faded further as poor economic data reinforced the Fed’s cautious view and confirmed the retreat of Treasury yields since the June 16 meeting.
The USD/JPY lost altitude on the week, but trading easily remained within the range of the last two months. With weak US statistics and stationary monetary policy, there was no compelling reason to buy the pair and with positive Japanese input absent. There was no substantial logic for selling either.

Japan , Tokyo , United-states , Japanese , American , Jerome-powell , Market-committee , Forecast-poll , Japanese-prime-minister-yoshihide-suga , Federal-open-market-committee , Durable-goods-orders , Industrial-production

EUR/USD Weekly Forecast: Could the Nonfarm Payroll report be a game-changer?

7/30/2021 3:36:52 PM GMT
The US Federal Reserve disappointed markets by showing no rush to taper.
The US economy is expected to have added roughly 1 million jobs in July.
EUR/USD has recovered nicely, but a course change has not been confirmed.
The EUR/USD pair reached fresh July highs on the last trading day of the month, settling just below the 1.1900 level. The pair has advanced ever since the week started but gained momentum on Wednesday after the US Federal Reserve smashed the dollar.
No time for tapering
The US central bank left its monetary policy unchanged, as expected, and noted that the economy has continued to progress but noted that “substantial further progress” toward the Fed’s goal of stable prices and maximum employment has not yet been achieved. “We are not there yet,” said Chairman Jerome Powell in the Q&A that followed his speech. Market participants were hoping for some clues on how and when the US central bank will start to reduce its bond-buying programs launched to support the economy through the pandemic.

Germany , United-states , American , Jerome-powell , July-pmis , Chairman-jerome-powell , Standing-repo-facilities , Gross-domestic-product , Durable-goods-orders , Initial-jobless-claims , Consumer-price-index

AUD/USD Weekly Forecast: Bears are on pause but retain control

7/30/2021 3:40:39 PM GMT
The Fed smashed the greenback but the aussie could not take advantage of it.
The Reserve Bank of Australia will announce its decision on monetary policy on Tuesday.
AUD/USD maintains a bearish stance amid concerns about the Australian economy.
The broad dollar’s weakness fell short of helping AUD/USD. The pair ended the week pretty much unchanged, trading below the 0.7400 level. The Australian could not advance with the usual catalysts but retreated rapidly with those that weigh on the aussie, reflecting the absence of interest for the commodity-linked currency.
Coronavirus spooking aussie buyers
The main reason is still linked to the pandemic. Australia passed 2020 without much economic pain, as the island country quickly closed its borders. However, such a strategy could not be applied eternally, and the country opened borders with neighbour New Zealand after a year. The virus entered the country, and since early June, multiple regional lockdowns have been in place, although the coronavirus keeps spreading.

Australia , New-zealand , Australian , Jerome-powell , July-pmis , Reserve-bank , Chairman-jerome-powell , Gross-domestic-product , Durable-goods-orders , Initial-jobless-claims , Price-index

Calculated Risk

This graph shows new home sales for 2020 and 2021 by month (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate).
The year-over-year comparisons were easy in the first half of 2021 - especially in March and April.
However, sales will likely be down year-over-year in the 2nd half of 2021 - since the selling season was delayed in 2020.
And on inventory: note that completed inventory (3rd graph in previous post) is near record lows, but inventory under construction is closer to normal.
This graph shows the months of supply by stage of construction.
The inventory of completed homes for sale was at 36 thousand in June, just above the record low of 33 thousand in March and April 2021.

Nevada , United-states , Vermont , Delaware , Minnesota , California , New-mexico , Connecticut , Arizona , Massachusetts , Iowa , New-york

US June Durable Goods: More than meets the eye

Responses to the Durable Goods results were limited with the Fed meeting on Wednesday dominating market considerations.
Equities were slightly lower, with the S&P 500 losing 0.47%, the Dow shedding 0.24% and the NASDAQ taking the largest hit,1.2% related to China’s crackdown on some of its largest tech firms.
Treasury yields fell due to the expected continuation of the Fed’s easy money policy and the lack of new information on the prospects for a tapering of the bond program.
The dollar was mixed, gaining against the euro, sterling, Australian, New Zealand and Canadian dollars but falling versus the Japanese yen and Swiss Franc.

China , Australia , Japan , New-zealand , Canada , Switzerland , Japanese , Australian , Canadian , Swiss , Census-bureau

US inflation expectations step back from seven-week top ahead of FOMC

7/28/2021 12:59:43 AM GMT
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By Anil Panchal
US inflation expectations, as measured by the 10-year breakeven inflation rate, per the St. Louis Federal Reserve (FRED) data, eased from the seven-week top on Tuesday. In doing so, the risk barometer fades the one-week-old recovery moves, suggesting further hardships for the traders to predict the market sentiment.
The drop in inflation expectations could be linked to the latest US data concerning housing prices and Durable Goods Orders as the figures slipped beneath the market forecasts but the previous readouts were revised up. Also challenging the inflation expectations could be the latest Delta covid strain fears in the Asia-Pacific, as well as in the West.

Us-federal-open-market-committee , Louis-federal-reserve , Durable-goods-orders , Open-market-committee , எங்களுக்கு-கூட்டாட்சியின்-திறந்த-சந்தை-குழு , லூயிஸ்-கூட்டாட்சியின்-இருப்பு , நீடித்த-பொருட்கள்-ஆர்டர்ஸ் , திறந்த-சந்தை-குழு ,

Forex Today: Dollar on the back foot ahead of the Fed, cryptos recover, covid news eyed

Forex Today: Dollar on the back foot ahead of the Fed, cryptos recover, covid news eyed
fxstreet.com - get the latest breaking news, showbiz & celebrity photos, sport news & rumours, viral videos and top stories from fxstreet.com Daily Mail and Mail on Sunday newspapers.

China , Beijing , Australia , United-states , Canada , United-kingdom , Americans , Jerome-powell , Federal-reserve , Microsoft , Us-center , Chair-jerome-powell