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Jimmystats: Targeting Data 2020


Expected Points Added
I’ve also calculated Expected Points Added for all the plays, which we get from knowing every down/distance/field position has a value, based on how many points an average offense is likely to score that drive. So for example:
It’s 3rd and 14 on the Indiana 42 = 1.3 expected points
Ronnie Bell makes a 17-yard catch.
Now it’s 1st and 10 on the Indiana 25 = 4.3 expected points
Ronnie Bell’s catch equals 4.3 minus 1.3, or
3 EP.
I treated touchdowns as 6.971 points, and adjusted all of these for opponent, based on Bill Connelly s SP+. So for example this play which started at 1st and 10 from the Michigan 30 (1.3 EP) was adjusted down from 5.66 to 5.38 because Minnesota’s defense is terrible. ....

United States , Wandale Robinson , Nick Eubanks , Rondale Moore , Mike Sainristil , Hassan Haskins , Chris Olave , Jake Ferguson , Devonta Smith , Drew Dileo , Ihmir Smith Marsette , Chris Autman Bell , Bo Melton , Ricky White , Ramaud Chiaokhiao Bowman , Zach Charbonnet , Cornelius Johnson , Chris Evans , Blake Corum , Giles Jackson , Ronnie Bell , Garrett Wilson , Rashod Bateman , Austin Allen , Rakim Jarrett , Ben Mason ,