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AIA expects construction to surge, but not until 2022

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Calculated Risk


7/22/2021 02:01:00 PM
Note: At the beginning of the pandemic, the delinquency rate increased sharply (see table below).   Loans in forbearance are counted as delinquent in this survey, but those loans are not reported as delinquent to the credit bureaus.

The national delinquency rate hit its lowest level since the onset of the pandemic and is now back below its pre-Great Recession average
• Despite the improvement, there are more than 1.5 million homeowners 90 or more days past due on their mortgages but who are not in foreclosure, still nearly four times pre-pandemic levels
• Serious delinquency rates remain elevated by more than a full percentage point across all 50 states, with Hawaii and Nevada serious delinquency rates remaining elevated by 3.4 percentage points ....

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Calculated Risk


Existing-home sales increased in June, snapping four consecutive months of declines, according to the National Association of Realtors®. Three of the four major U.S. regions registered small month-over-month gains, while the fourth remained flat. However, all four areas notched double-digit year-over-year gains.
Total existing-home sales, completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, grew 1.4% from May to a
seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.86 million in June. Sales climbed year-over-year, up 22.9% from a year ago (4.77 million in June 2020).
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Total housing inventory at the end of June amounted to 1.25 million units, up 3.3% from May s inventory and down 18.8% from one year ago (1.54 million). Unsold inventory sits at a 2.6-month supply at the current sales pace, modestly up from May s 2.5-month supply but down from 3.9 months in June 2020. ....

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Calculated Risk


7/21/2021 12:22:00 PM
Housing economist Tom Lawler has been tracking this, see: Lawler: Single-Family Rent Trends. This will likely push up Owner s Equivalent Rent (OER, a key component of CPI) in the coming months.
U.S. single-family rent growth increased 6.6% in May 2021, the fastest year-over-year increase since at least January 2005[1], according to the CoreLogic Single-Family Rent Index (SFRI). The May 2021 increase was nearly four times the May 2020 increase. The index measures rent changes among single-family rental homes, including condominiums, using a repeat-rent analysis to measure the same rental properties over time.
An uneven U.S. job recovery, sometimes called a “K-shaped” recovery, is reflected in the rent price growth of the low- and high-price rent tiers, with the increase in lower-priced rentals lagging behind that of higher-priced rentals. The low-price tier is defined as properties with rent prices less than 75% of the regional median, and th ....

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