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Dating business cycles in France | VOX, CEPR Policy Portal


Eric Monnet, Damien Puy
The Covid-19 pandemic generated an unprecedented economic recession in most countries around the world. Given the nature of shock, the start of the slump has been clearly identified. For example, the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee rapidly identified a peak in the US business cycle in 2019Q4 (NBER 2020). But the exit from the Covid-19 recession is less clear. In a recent contribution, Hamilton (2021) argues that the US recession ended in 2020Q2, but there is so far no official announcement from the NBER. With regards to other countries, especially in Europe, the cyclical situation also appears unclear, as economic activity seems to be conditioned by the waves of the pandemic, as pointed by the EABCN-CEPR Business Cycle Dating Committee (Weil et al. 2020).    ....

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