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Political Risk: Why It Matters


 
International opportunities to diversify equity allocations are increasing, along with globalization, and as a result, political risk matters now more than ever. More so, the interplay of macroeconomic policymaking and government instability continues to have far-reaching effects in political risk, augmenting the uncertainty that goes hand in hand with allocating to emerging markets.
Mindful of this, S&P Dow Jones Indices collaborated with GeoQuant, an AI-driven political risk data firm, to devise the Emerging Markets Political Risk-Tilted Concept Index (hereafter the “Concept Index”).
Offering a reduced-political-risk alternative to the exposure of the S&P Emerging BMI, the Risk-Tilted Concept Index overweights (underweights) countries with relatively low (high) political risk, leading to higher cumulative returns during the back-tested period (see Exhibit 1). ....

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Quarterly Review: 2021 Opens with a Changing of the Guard


Cyclical Sectors Responded Well to Vaccines, Stimulus, and Pent-up Demand
A little over twelve months ago, investors were looking for signs that the bull market and multi-year economic expansion were coming to an end. The onset of COVID-19 put an end to both, but now investors are focused on a new expansion and a new bull market with different dynamics. As we have navigated back and forth between optimism and pessimism, we have also seen leadership changes across asset classes and investment styles. The combination of massive amounts of global stimulus, accommodative central banks, and widespread distribution of the vaccine has helped fuel broader participation beyond just US large cap and growth sectors. ....

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