Calculated Risk: Schedule for Week of September 26, 2021 calculatedriskblog.com - get the latest breaking news, showbiz & celebrity photos, sport news & rumours, viral videos and top stories from calculatedriskblog.com Daily Mail and Mail on Sunday newspapers.
. The housing market’s historically tight inventory conditions finally started to ease in May, but that did little to immediately tame the record-strong home price appreciation that the market has experienced in recent months. The number available homes across the nation finally ticked up this spring, albeit from a historically low reference point, after spending most of the last year in a steady decline. Still, price pressures remain very firm and appear ready to stay that way in the months to come. Indeed, sharply-rising prices do appear to have priced out some home shoppers, particularly those looking to enter the market for the first time, and causing fatigue among would-be buyers. But overall demand for homes remains very firm, as bidding wars persist and the still-relatively few homes available for sales continue to fly off the shelves at a historically fast pace. Increased inventory levels should eventually help tame the record-high pace of price appreciation, but it’s going to take a while.
The Census Bureau released the Residential Vacancies and Homeownership report for Q2 2021. It is likely the results of this survey were significantly distorted by the pandemic. This report is frequently mentioned by analysts and the media to track household formation, the homeownership rate, and the homeowner and rental vacancy rates. However, there are serious questions about the accuracy of this survey. This survey might show the trend, but I wouldn t rely on the absolute numbers. Analysts probably shouldn t use the HVS to estimate the excess vacant supply or household formation, or rely on the homeownership rate, except as a guide to the trend.
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This graph shows new home sales for 2020 and 2021 by month (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate). The year-over-year comparisons were easy in the first half of 2021 - especially in March and April. However, sales will likely be down year-over-year in the 2nd half of 2021 - since the selling season was delayed in 2020. And on inventory: note that completed inventory (3rd graph in previous post) is near record lows, but inventory under construction is closer to normal. This graph shows the months of supply by stage of construction. The inventory of completed homes for sale was at 36 thousand in June, just above the record low of 33 thousand in March and April 2021.
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• At 9:00 AM ET, S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Index for May. The consensus is for a 16.3% year-over-year increase in the Comp 20 index for May. • Also at 9:00 AM, FHFA House Price Index for May. This was originally a GSE only repeat sales, however there is also an expanded index. • At 10:00 AM: Richmond Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for July. This is the last of the regional surveys for July. • Also at 10:00 AM, The Q2 Housing Vacancies and Homeownership report from the Census Bureau. Posted by Calculated Risk on
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