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John Muellbauer During the Covid-19 pandemic, central banks have pushed to the extreme the tools they had created after the Global Crisis: targeted lending, large asset purchases, and negative interest rates (Hartmann and Schepens 2021). This is especially true in the euro area. The balance sheet of the ECB amounts to 60% of GDP, it holds around 25% of public debt of the euro area, and the deposit facility rate is at -0.5% (-1% for targeted long-term refinancing operations, or TLTRO). These measures were useful and necessary to avert deflation both during the 2010s and in the Covid-19 crisis. However, since 2015 the annual inflation rate has been around target only 10% of the time (see Figure 1). Based on its June 2021 forecast, the ECB itself anticipates (after a temporary increase in 2021) an average inflation rate below its 2% target at 1.5% in 2022 and 1.4% in 2023. ....
The European Central Bank (ECB) is the central bank of the 19 European Union countries which have adopted the euro. Our main task is to maintain price stability in the euro area and so preserve the purchasing power of the single currency. ....