April 5, 2021
Faizal Yahya
SINGAPORE (CNA) – We will fly again. It just might happen much later for most of us, in 2024 and beyond.
Despite the roll out of vaccines and the opening of economies, the patchy global coverage in vaccinations and the spike in infection rates of COVID-19 in various countries indicate it will be some time before air passenger travel returns to 2019 levels.
The International Air Transport Association (IATA) forecast that in an optimistic scenario the air travel market would reach 38 per cent of 2019 levels in 2021 and airlines would spend USD75 billion over the year to maintain operations.
In a pessimistic scenario, the air travel market would only amount to 33 per cent of 2019 levels and airlines would spend USD95 billion. To complicate matters, the recovery will vary across regions. An Aviation Forecast Report by the global consulting service company ICF found that 60 per cent of their respondents polled in Asia thought the region will see full recovery in less than 12 months.